Weekly Summary: 2nd December 2022

DATA: Nationwide reported a 4.4% annual rise in house prices in November

This was much lower than the 7.2% reported last month thanks to a 1.4% monthly fall.

DATA: Zoopla reported a 7.8% annual rise in house prices in October

They also report(PDF) the “Mini-budget fallout hits demand (-44%) more than new sales (-28%)” with “New sales fell by half in the hottest markets, less in affordable areas”.

DATA: Bank of England reported a fall in mortgage approvals for purchase

The number of mortgage approvals for house purchase in October was 10.6% lower than the previous month’s figure and 11% below the pre-pandemic average.

DATA: BoE reported further rises in effective mortgage rates

The data, covering actual lending rather than available products, showed the average rate on new advances was 3.1% in October and the rate on outstanding balances was 2.3%.

DATA: Homes England published housebuilding statistics

The data for April to September 2022 shows a fall in starts and completions though this is “largely due to the transition from the Shared Ownership and Affordable Homes Programme (SOAHP) 2016-21 to the Affordable Homes Programme (AHP) 2021-26”.

DATA: ONS published further 2021 Census data

The release covers ethnic group, national identity, language, and religion.

POLICY: DLUHC launched pilot Medium-Rise Scheme (MRS)

The pilot will “provide funding for the remediation or mitigation of the fire safety risks linked to unsafe external wall systems on medium-rise buildings where a responsible developer cannot be identified”. Medium rise buildings are defined as 11m to 18m high.

REPORT: HBF published Q3 2022 planning pipeline report

They report “Overall approvals totalled 237,917 units during the first nine months of 2022, a 15% decline on a year ago, and the number of private sector housing projects (schemes of three or more units) was 14% lower than a year earlier”.

BLOG: Centre for Cities published a short guide to planning reform

The guide offers answers to frequently asked questions on planning reform.

BLOG: BoE published analysis of household spending

Their analysis of the latest NMG survey shows “Lower-income households have mostly tried to limit the rise in their expenditure by reducing the amount of goods and services they buy or by switching towards cheaper substitutes. Meanwhile, higher-income households have continued to consume the same goods or increased their purchases and have therefore spent more overall”.

REPORT(PDF): Knight Frank reported on the build to rent market

They report “Almost £3.2 billion of capital has been committed to the UK Build to Rent (BTR) sector during the first three quarters of 2022, up 10.2% year-on-year”.

NEWS: Shelter report on private renters threatened with eviction

Their survey found “One in 12 private renters in England – equivalent to 941,000 people – are currently under threat of eviction”.

Chart of the Week

It’s a fairly simple chart this week showing the change in three house price indices since 2019 (based on an average for the whole year). The chart highlights the uncertainty while the housing market was closed in early 2020 with Nationwide reporting prices falls and Rightmove stopping publication. However, the market has boomed since, with prices rising substantially. However, that now appears to have stopped with Nationwide reporting house prices down 3.6% since August and Rightmove reporting asking prices relatively flat since May. It appears house prices have peaked but it is still uncertain how far they could fall.

Market Commentary – November 2022

Rising Waves

Quicker To Sink

New Build – New Lifeboats Needed?

There have been rising waves threatening to sink the UK housing market all year but they have stayed just below the surface – until now. House prices continued rising and transactions stayed above their pre-pandemic levels despite rising rates and the cost of living crisis. However, the mini-budget was the turning of the tide and the surface is starting to look a lot more turbulent. The waves are now threatening to sink the housing market – an outcome that will probably hit transactions hardest and suggests the new build sector will need support.

Continue reading “Market Commentary – November 2022”

Weekly Summary: 25th November 2022

DATA: HMRC reported 108,500 residential transactions in October

The robust figure was 2.3% higher than last month’s figure and 9% higher than the pre-pandemic average. This might reflect the rush to complete sales as mortgage rates rose.

DATA: ONS reported another record high in annual SDLT receipts

Stamp duty land tax (SDLT) receipts rose to £17.7 billion in the year to October 2022, a new record high. This data covers residential and commercial property.

DATA: DLUHC reported net housing supply of 233,000 homes in 2021-22

See Chart of the Week for more detail.

DATA: ONS estimated net migration of 504,000 in the year to June 2022

The provisional data reflects a number of unique circumstances including the recovery in travel following the pandemic. It’s possible the short-term shock as international migration patterns recovered have contributed to the excess private rental demand reported in many cities across the UK. If so, we’d expect some of these pressures to ease in the future.

DATA: ONS reported on higher education students and the cost of living

The survey shows “Half (50%) of students felt they had financial difficulties, with 35% saying these were minor and 15% saying they had major financial difficulties” and “Nearly one in five (18%) students said they had considered moving back to their family home and commuting to their university from there, with 6% of all students planning to do so”.

POLICY: Gove warns social housing providers on housing conditions

Following the tragic case of Awaab Ishak, who died as a direct result of mould in his home, the Secretary of State wrote to all providers of social housing “saying they must raise the bar dramatically on standards and demanding urgent action where people complain about damp and mould”. He has also withheld Affordable Homes Programme funding for the responsible housing association and threatened to block any other provider that breaches the Regulator’s consumer standards.

REPORT(PDF): Glen Bramley et al reported on “Homelessness amongst Black and minoritised ethnic communities in the UK”

They found “overwhelming statistical evidence that people from Black and minoritised ethnic communities experience highly disproportionate levels of homelessness in the UK”.

BLOG: Housing energy efficiency by Parliamentary Constituencies

Owen Boswarva published analysis and data on the energy efficiency of housing in England and Wales.

NEWS: Moneyfacts reported five-year mortgage rates dropped below 6%

Their release on Tuesday reports the average five-year fixed rate mortgage fellow to 5.95% though there are “a handful of lenders offering sub-5% fixed deals”.

Chart of the Week

This week saw the release of the most comprehensive housing statistics in England covering the 2021-22 financial year. There were no surprises with the headline 233,000 net additions at the level already suggested by other lead indicators (EPCs & Council Taxbase) and new build completions came in at 210,000 homes, again the level suggested by lead indicators. The chart of the week shows this latest data by region and expressed as a percentage of the existing housing in 2021. It shows the much higher relative levels of new build delivery in the south of England during the period and the higher contribution of net conversions in London. Check out our updated local authority level analysis for more detail.

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