The latest data shows a mixed picture for the state of the UK housing market. The hangover from the Truss turmoil is slowly clearing and some leading indicators for activity are back near pre-pandemic levels. However, the housing market is highly seasonal so the next couple of months could be the best it will get this year. Meanwhile, the rapid exit from record low interest rates may be easing but we are only just beginning to find out what a decade of this has done to the UK’s economy, financial system, and housing market. It is far from over.
DATA: Rightmove reported asking prices rose 3% in year to March 2023
They reported sales agreed in their “first-time buyer type” properties were just 4% lower than 2019 levels in the last two weeks while “top-of-the-ladder” properties were 10% lower and “second-stepper” properties were 13% lower.
DATA: ONS reported a 6.3% annual increase in UK house prices
The completions based index is reporting prices are down 1.7% since their November peak.
DATA: ONS reported CPI rose 10.4% the year to February 2023
This was an increase from the 10.1% rate the previous month. Inflation is expected to ease in the coming months as last year’s effects fall out of the annual figures.
DATA: HMRC reported 90,000 residential transactions in February
The estimates for the latest month show transactions were 18% lower than the same month last year and 9% lower than the pre-pandemic average.
DATA: ONS reported SDLT receipts fell 28% in February
The data covers both residential and commercial stamp duty land tax receipts.
DATA: DLUHC reported English quarterly housebuilding data for Q4 2022
The release, which undercounts actual housebuilding, shows Q4 housebuilding starts were 7.5% lower than Q4 2021 while completions were 9.7% higher over the same period.
DATA: ONS published housing affordability data for 2022
They report the average house price to earnings ratio was 8.3 in England and 6.2 in Wales. Alongside this, they also published the latest house price statistics for small areas.
DATA: ONS reported on changes in PRS price change behaviour
Their longitudinal analysis of rental prices found 50.6% of properties in their study had seen a rent increase in February 2023 compared to 36.0% in February 2022. They also found a third of properties in London had seen a 10% plus rental increase over the period.
DATA: DWP published Family Resources Survey for 2021/22
See Chart of the Week for more detail.
POLICY: Bank of England increased Bank Rate to 4.25%
The MPC voted 7-2 to increase the rate by 0.25 percentage points. This is the highest the rate has been since 2008.
POLICY: DLUHC launched new infrastructure levy consultation
The level will replace section 106 contributions for most developments and “the amount developers will have to pay will be calculated once a project is complete, instead of at the stage the site is given planning permission”.
POLICY: DLUHC published Responsible Actors Scheme details
The scheme for residential developers will be implemented through the Building Safety Act.
REPORT: BoE published Q1 2023 Agents Summary of Business Conditions
They report “Contacts reported a modest pick-up in secondary market activity and requests for valuations but said that demand was broadly equal to the supply of properties available” and “House builders reported scaling back construction plans and said they were having to offer more incentives to secure sales. Buyers were reported to be opting for smaller properties due to higher borrowing costs”.
REPORT: UNU-WIDER Academic Paper on “The end of Londongrad?”
The paper investigates the impact of requiring offshore companies to register their beneficial owners and finds that purchases by tax haven based companies have fallen.
REPORT: UCL Academic Paper on “The London Housing Market”
The authors “develop a novel quantitative system dynamics model to explain long-term developments in London’s housing market from 1980-2020”.
REPORT(PDF): Lichfields and HBF on “Nutrient Neutrality Solution Finding”
“The focus of this report is on the implications of the statutory duty on the delivery of new housing over the short to medium term”.
REPORT(PDF): HBF published new home customer satisfaction survey
The survey shows “88% of respondents said they were satisfied with the quality of their home” and 85% would buy from the same builder again.
REPORT: Savills reported on the development land market
They suggest the “pick-up in sales rates suggests activity is likely to return to the land market by the second half of the year”. Alongside this, a consultancy report investigating the “importance of sales outlets in a market without Help to Buy” was released (PDF).
REPORT(PDF): Fabian Society published “Homes for Britain” report
The planning focussed report sets out 10 proposals for Labour to build more homes.
They report “we have seen an improving trend on private sales in the first 11 weeks of the year, with the Group’s average private sales rate per site per week for the year to date at 0.54, increasing to 0.62 in the last four weeks”.
CORPORATE: Crest Nicholson published AGM statement
They report their sales per outlet per week (SPOW) was “at 0.52 for the last eleven weeks from the start of the calendar year. This improvement versus the eleven-week SPOW rate from 1 November 2022 at 0.35, as reported at our Preliminary Results in January 2023”.
Chart of the Week
The latest DWP Family Resources Survey provides a wealth of data on income, housing tenure, housing costs and other metrics. Today’s Chart of the Week republishes their data on savings by weekly household income. It highlights the lack of savings with 13% of all households having no savings and a further 26% having savings of less than £1,500. As the chart highlights, this is more extreme for those with lower incomes. Around 20% of households in the lowest two income groups have no savings and around a third have savings of less than £1,500. The situation is reversed the other end of the income distribution with 42% of those earning £2,000 or more per week having savings of £30,000 or more. However, the survey suggests 6% of this group have no savings.
