Market Commentary – 2023 Review

A Hangover, Second Wind, & Comatose Market

Failure to Complete & Sticky Prices

Escape At Any Price & Anything But The Price

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Market Commentary – October 2023

Teetering On The Edge

But This Is No Precipice

The housing market has been stagnating in recent months as the impact of high mortgage rates has been seen in much lower levels of activity. However, there are signs of weakening sentiment as rates stay higher for longer and the market is teetering on the edge of further prices. However, any further price falls should be relatively modest.

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Market Commentary – September 2023

Short-Term Volatility

High-Rate Fallout

Half-Year Transaction Update

Mortgage rates may be falling from their summer highs but interest rates look set to stay higher for longer than many expected earlier in the year. Despite the downwards trend, there will inevitably be short-term volatility as markets react to new data and lenders adjust to changing conditions. As base rate rises ease, our attention will increasingly focus on the wider economy. Will we get a “soft landing” or will the economic stress created by higher rates lead to rising unemployment and forced sales. We also review sales data for the first half of the year.

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Market Commentary – August 2023

Higher Rates, Lower Loan-to-Incomes

New Year Hangover

Regional Remortgage Stress

Mortgage rates have fallen from their recent highs but are still elevated compared to back in the spring. These higher rates have already limited how much buyers can borrow and, if rates stay high, loan-to-income ratios could fall further. As a result, it appears cash buyers have been supporting market activity, so far. Meanwhile, data on when fixed rate mortgages are due to end suggests remortgage pain for over 370,000 in the new year.

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Market Commentary – July2023

Still Elevated

The Importance of Wealth

Interest rate expectations are falling as inflation eases but are still elevated compared to back in the spring. We’re yet to see what impact these higher rates have had on the housing market in recent months and much will depend on how high they still are in the autumn. However, even under low rates, access to wealth is key for those buying.

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Market Commentary – June 2023

Everything But The Price

Buying Less While Paying More

Rising Arrears But Not Repossessions

Mortgage dependent buyers are stretching every variable they can to afford still high house prices. As a result, they are ending up getting less while paying more than even just one year ago. Meanwhile, as more existing borrowers roll off their fixed rates, mortgage arrears are likely to increase but don’t expect repossessions to follow. We also look at the number of first time buyers amidst claims they are at a twenty year high.

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