Category: Market Commentary

The Next Crash & Rational Exuberance

Interest Rates, Energy Costs, & Policy Mistakes

House Prices & Turnover

The housing market may still be booming but risks are rising. There are increasing warnings about a recession while some forecasters are downgrading their predictions for house price growth next year. A crash is still far from guaranteed but it is worth considering what the next market downturn could look like. At the very least to explore what could be done to alleviate the challenges and issues it creates for the housing market and wider economy.

Continue reading “Market Commentary – April 2022”

Record Low Rates, Record High Prices

Cost of Living & Housing Market Downturns

Regional Transactions

Every week brings new reports of record high house prices despite the soaring cost of living as mortgage rates remain low – for the moment. While last year’s Spring Budget all but guaranteed that 2021 would end with a housing boom, this year’s Spring Statement brought no guarantees for the housing market. However, the lack of support for households in the face of the soaring cost of living is likely to further reinforce the inequalities in the housing market. Renters will struggle most and the threat of a future housing market downturn has increased.

Continue reading “Market Commentary – March 2022”

Rising Prices & Russian Buyers

Supply, Demand, & Mortgage Rates

There are more important issues facing the world than what is happening in the UK’s housing market. It can be difficult to focus on topics like housing in the face of the constant news stream from the horrific war in Ukraine but there is little we can add to that debate. Therefore, we will stick to what we know best by continuing to look at recent trends in the housing market while highlighting some potential impacts that the war might have.

Continue reading “Market Commentary – February 2022”

Supply & Demand

Cost of Living Squeeze

House prices are still rising rapidly as the supply squeeze drives competition amongst buyers. But the rising cost of living and increasing interest rates are a major risk to the housing market with private renters most exposed.

Continue reading “Market Commentary – January 2022”

Transaction Taxes & A Tax Cut For The Top End

The Credit Crunch & Levelling Up House Prices

Supply Squeeze & Looking Ahead

The housing market in 2021 was full of stamp duty deadlines, soaring transactions, and rampant house price growth. The top end of the housing market boomed while first time buyers struggled thanks to a credit crunch and renewed interest from buy-to-let investors and second home owners. The housing market now faces a supply squeeze with a lack of homes available for sale while the threat of rising interest rates looms large. This note provides a brief review of the housing market in 2021 and looks ahead to what might happen next.

Continue reading “Market Commentary – 2021 Review”

The Quiet After The Storm

Lack of Supply And Low Mortgage Rates

The storm of stamp duty driven activity has eased and December/January are usually a quieter time for the housing market. While normal seasonal trends have been disrupted in recent years, there are some signs that the market is returning to more normal patterns this winter. However, these same seasonal patterns are likely to further reduce the already low number of homes available to buy. That could put further upwards pressure on house prices, especially if prospective buyers feel the need to rush their purchase ahead of any interest rate rises.

Continue reading “Market Commentary – November 2021”

Looking Ahead But Don’t Look Back

Rising Rate Risk

Transactions – A Return To Trend?

As the end of the year draws nearer, attention is increasingly focussed on what might happen to the housing market in 2022. There may be two months of the year left but estate agents, economists, and market commentators have been busy updating their house price forecasts for next year. After last year’s poor showing, forecasters’ expectations for 2022 are much lower than the growth recorded so far this year. High inflation and rising interest rates are a major cause for concern, while transactions are unlikely to repeat this year’s stamp duty holiday fuelled boom. This month’s market commentary looks at the latest OBR forecasts for the housing market.

Continue reading “Market Commentary – October 2021”

Delayed Data

Tax Cut For The Top-End

The Race For Space

As the stamp duty holiday finally comes to an end, six months later than originally planned, we are only now beginning to get useful publicly available data that can tell us what homes have been selling and where since it began. This month’s market commentary uses Land Registry transaction data to investigate what has been happening in the housing market since it reopened last summer up until the first spike in transactions in March 2021, when the stamp duty holiday was originally scheduled to end.

Continue reading “Market Commentary – September 2021”

New Build’s Missed Opportunity

Housing market activity has boomed over the last year but there is at least one part of the market that appears to have missed out: new build homes. A combination of drivers including the stamp duty holiday and race for space have helped propel transactions to levels not seen since 2007. But, while new housing supply has recovered to normal pre-pandemic levels, it appears to have missed out on the current boom in demand from home buyers.

Continue reading “Market Commentary – August 2021”

Strong Demand, Uncertain Depth

Constrained Supply

Seasonal Market

The UK’s housing market is booming with record high levels of transactions and rising house prices. But these higher levels of activity have also raised growing concerns from estate agents and others that there is insufficient housing stock available on the market to buy. This lack of stock for sale is apparently contributing to rapidly rising house prices as buyers rush to beat the end of stamp duty holidays amidst a fear of missing out. This note looks at what has been happening in the market and questions if the autumn market will bring new sellers to the market.

Continue reading “Market Commentary – July 2021”