In the absence of publicly available data from UK Finance and delays in publication of the FCA’s Mortgage Product Sales Data, we have constructed our own estimates of quarterly mortgage activity by first-time buyers and home movers.
It is simply the total value of mortgage advances to each group from the Bank of England’s MLAR data (table 1.33)* then divided by the average mortgage advance to each group from the Regulated Mortgage Survey published by ONS (table 15).
We have tested it against other data sources and it appears to accurately reflect mortgage activity but should only be relied upon at your own risk.
*make sure you use the aggregated data containing both regulated and non-regulated data near the bottom of the sheet.
| First Time Buyers | Mortgage Movers | |
| Q1 2007 | 83,056 | 151,564 |
| Q2 2007 | 95,591 | 181,998 |
| Q3 2007 | 97,817 | 191,380 |
| Q4 2007 | 80,632 | 156,206 |
| Q1 2008 | 53,218 | 95,629 |
| Q2 2008 | 55,728 | 99,780 |
| Q3 2008 | 45,442 | 78,525 |
| Q4 2008 | 39,040 | 63,249 |
| Q1 2009 | 29,699 | 46,867 |
| Q2 2009 | 43,548 | 71,259 |
| Q3 2009 | 55,525 | 93,227 |
| Q4 2009 | 62,823 | 102,828 |
| Q1 2010 | 40,636 | 69,603 |
| Q2 2010 | 48,649 | 84,380 |
| Q3 2010 | 53,859 | 96,346 |
| Q4 2010 | 48,314 | 81,542 |
| Q1 2011 | 37,223 | 61,673 |
| Q2 2011 | 46,736 | 75,631 |
| Q3 2011 | 52,405 | 91,507 |
| Q4 2011 | 52,077 | 84,795 |
| Q1 2012 | 49,678 | 68,880 |
| Q2 2012 | 46,012 | 77,391 |
| Q3 2012 | 52,669 | 85,031 |
| Q4 2012 | 55,955 | 82,199 |
| Q1 2013 | 45,831 | 64,675 |
| Q2 2013 | 55,889 | 81,183 |
| Q3 2013 | 67,421 | 97,385 |
| Q4 2013 | 72,204 | 98,135 |
| Q1 2014 | 63,270 | 79,739 |
| Q2 2014 | 73,726 | 92,107 |
| Q3 2014 | 76,519 | 101,608 |
| Q4 2014 | 72,834 | 91,723 |
| Q1 2015 | 56,749 | 68,854 |
| Q2 2015 | 69,648 | 81,918 |
| Q3 2015 | 80,275 | 99,850 |
| Q4 2015 | 83,755 | 97,370 |
| Q1 2016 | 67,222 | 89,573 |
| Q2 2016 | 79,825 | 78,986 |
| Q3 2016 | 86,131 | 92,053 |
| Q4 2016 | 85,096 | 89,107 |
| Q1 2017 | 74,868 | 79,694 |
| Q2 2017 | 85,914 | 91,660 |
| Q3 2017 | 91,096 | 103,663 |
| Q4 2017 | 91,136 | 99,845 |
| Q1 2018 | 75,602 | 78,358 |
| Q2 2018 | 86,883 | 88,047 |
| Q3 2018 | 91,404 | 101,851 |
| Q4 2018 | 93,529 | 99,588 |
| Q1 2019 | 74,326 | 78,242 |
| Q2 2019 | 84,592 | 87,471 |
| Q3 2019 | 94,360 | 100,433 |
| Q4 2019 | 92,445 | 98,854 |
| Q1 2020 | 75,723 | 76,531 |
| Q2 2020 | 46,587 | 44,825 |
| Q3 2020 | 78,258 | 82,663 |
| Q4 2020 | 102,218 | 121,349 |
| Q1 2021 | 96,113 | 137,863 |
| Q2 2021 | 115,822 | 143,538 |
| Q3 2021 | 103,529 | 109,124 |
| Q4 2021 | 91,645 | 82,838 |