Two Week Summary: 30th June 2023

DATA: Rightmove reported UK house prices rose 1.1% in year to June

They report “The delayed spring bounce in May has quickly turned into an earlier than usual summer price slowdown”. They also report “Buyer demand over the last two weeks is 6% higher than the same period in 2019’s more normal market” and “The number of sales being agreed has dropped marginally, and in the last two weeks is 6% behind the same period in 2019”.

DATA: Nationwide reported UK house prices fell 3.5% in year to June

They report “East Anglia was the weakest performing region, with prices down 4.7% compared with a year ago”.

DATA(PDF): Zoopla reported house prices rose 1.2% in year to May

They also report a “Jump in proportion of sellers having to accept discounts to asking price of more than 5% in recent weeks rises to 42%– returning to 2018 levels”.

DATA: ONS reported UK house prices rose 3.5% in year to April

The ONS index is based on completed transactions and was lower than last month’s figure of 4.1%. This data tends to be revised.

DATA: BoE reported a slight rise in mortgage approvals for house purchase

The data was 3% higher for May 2023 than the previous month but 24% lower than last year. Approvals for remortgaging were 27% lower than last year.

DATA: HMRC reported 80,020 residential transactions in May

The provisional estimate was 2.7% lower than the previous month and 27% lower than last year’s figure. This was 19% lower than the pre-pandemic average.

DATA: ONS reported SDLT receipts of £975 million in May

The stamp duty land tax data (covering residential and commercial property) was 8% lower than last month and 28% lower than the figure for May 2022.

DATA: BoE reported another rise in effective mortgage rates in May

Their data shows the average rate on new advances rose to 4.57% and the average rate on outstanding balances increased to 2.83%.

DATA: DLUHC published indicators of new housing supply for Q1 2023

The figures are based on building control data and undercount actual delivery. However, they are a useful leading indicator and show housebuilding starts were 12% lower than the same period last year while completions were 8% lower.

DATA: FCA published Mortgage Product Sales Data for 2022

The release provides lots of useful detail on the state of mortgage lending in 2022. We have published a Digging Deeper slide deck here.

DATA: UK Finance published data on interest-only mortgages in 2022

The release notes “There were 702,000 pure interest-only homeowner mortgages outstanding at the end of 2022, 6.9 per cent fewer than in 2021”.

DATA: ONS reported on holiday homes in England and Wales

The analysis identified around 70,000 second addresses used as holiday homes but notes the actual number is likely to be higher due to the specific criteria used by the Census.

DATA: Scottish Government published quarterly housing statistics

They report “Annual all-sector new housebuilding completions increased by 9% in the latest year to end March 2023, although starts have decreased by 2%”.

DATA: ONS published house price statistics for small areas, 2022

DATA: VOA published private rental market statistics, 2022/23

POLICY: Bank of England increased Bank Rate to 5%

POLICY: HM Treasury published Mortgage Charter

“This Charter sets out the standards lenders will adopt when helping their customers; signatories will provide borrowers with new flexibilities to manage their mortgage payments over a short period”.

REPORT: IFS reported on housing for lower-income households

The report investigates “patterns of housing tenure, quality and affordability for people on lower incomes” and finds “renters are considerably more likely than owner-occupiers to have low living standards on a variety of measures”. It also finds the freezing of LHA means “just 5% of private rental properties were affordable for housing benefit recipients”.

REPORT: Resolution Foundation reported on The Mortgage Crunch

They report “The rise in interest rates means that British families could now face nearly a £16 billion increase in their annual mortgage bill, up from £12 billion just six weeks ago” and “three-fifths (£9.5 billion) of the projected total increase in repayments is still to come”.

REPORT: JRF published Cost of Living Tracker, Summer 2023

They report “The number of low-income households unable to afford food, and who are behind with their bills, has tripled when compared to the Family Resources Survey in 2019–20, and appears to have found a worrying new normal level”.

REPORT(PDF): GLA reported on recent trends in London’s rental market

The report investigates the post-pandemic rise in private rental demand and fall in available properties to let, leading to large increases in rents.

REPORT: Policy Exchange published a placemaking matrix

It “will seek to identify and collate the placemaking characteristics of any given development and give each one a score, culminating in a final PAX rating that ranges from “Poor” to “Outstanding” and which can be used when determining planning permission”.

REPORT: HBF reported on the housebuilding workforce

The workforce census found “Overseas workers account for almost 65% of London’s house building workforce, with 50.8% of on-site staff coming from EU countries”. It also found “Millennials and Gen Z workers account for nearly 60% of respondents, with the most prevalent age group being 30 to 39 year olds – but with 20% of the workforce over 50, the industry is facing a retirement cliff edge in the coming years”.

REPORT: Bank Underground on local market interest rate shocks

The blog suggests “the recent rapid rise in interest rates could put more downwards pressure on house prices in areas of the country with more supply constraints”.

REPORT: Savills reported on the premium for eco-homes

The research finds “there is typically no premium for smaller homes, and a premium of 12% above similar standard new build for larger homes” but these homes cost more to build.

CORPORATE: Berkeley Group published final results

They report “the value of Berkeley’s underlying private sales reservations for 2022/23 was around 15% lower than 2021/22 on a like-for-like basis” and “at current sales rates, sales for 2023/24 will be around 20% lower than 2022/23”.

CORPORATE: Grainger published trading update

They report “7.1% total like‐for‐like rental growth YTD (HY23: 6.8%)” and “98.7% spot occupancy at the end of May (HY23: 98.5%)”.

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