DATA: Halifax reported UK house prices rose 4.7% in the year to Sep 2024
They report(PDF) this was “still the strongest rate since November 2022” though the “Higher annual growth continues to reflect the base impact of weaker prices a year ago”.
DATA: ONS estimated monthly GDP rose 1.0% in year to Aug 2024
They estimate GDP grew by 0.2% in August following two months of no growth.
DATA: BoE published quoted mortgage rates data for Sep 2024
They report average quoted mortgage rates across all product types fell during September.
DATA: ONS published national population estimates for mid 2023
See Chart of the Week for more detail.
DATA: ONS published Energy efficiency of housing, 2024
The analysis, based on Energy Performance Certificates, found “New dwellings are becoming increasingly energy efficient” and “Average scores increase[d] by two points in England and three points in Wales when we compare EPC results for new dwellings from 2008 to 2013 with the most recent five years from 2019 to 2024”.
DATA: BoE published Credit Conditions Survey for Q3 2024
They report “the availability of secured credit to households increased in the three months to end-August 2024 (Q3) and was expected to be unchanged over the next three months to end-November 2024 (Q4)” and “demand for secured lending for house purchase was unchanged in Q3 and was expected to increase in Q4”.
DATA: VOA published property counts by Parliamentary Constituency
The data provides property counts by Council Tax band for Westminster constituencies.
DATA: Financial Market Expectations For BoE’s Bank Rate
The chart provides a summary for the expected future level of Bank Rate based on daily data. The One Year figure was 3.83% on 10th October compared to 3.58% on 3rd October.
DATA: New Building Energy Performance Certificates, England
This chart provides a summary of the number of EPCs on new build properties, a useful leading indicator for net additions. The 52 week total was 221,561 on 30th September.
REPORT(PDF): RICS published UK Residential Survey for Sep 2024
They report “Sales market activity continues to display a more positive trend” with “New buyer enquiries indicator remains in positive territory”, “Agreed sales and new listings also display stronger momentum compared to a few months ago” and “House prices rising at the aggregate level”.
REPORT: JRF published Poverty in Scotland, 2024
They report “More than 1 in 5 Scots are currently living in poverty, struggling to survive on incomes that fall below what they need” and “This includes 1in every 4 children in Scotland” while “Despite the severity of the issue, there has been little meaningful progress in reducing these figures in recent years”.
REPORT: UCL reported on the demand for housing as an investment
The report suggests “The UK has become locked in to a ‘housing-finance feedback cycle’ where increasing financial flows into housing generate rising prices, and expectations of future rises which in turn generate more speculative demand for housing as an investment”.
REPORT: Bank Underground reported on long-term fixed-rate mortgages
The rather simplistic comparison of home ownership rates with the prevalence of fixed rates of 10 years or more across several countries finds no evidence that long-term fixed-rate mortgages are associated with higher rates of home ownership.
REPORT: UK Finance/Finova published 2024 Mortgage Efficiency Survey
The report provides some interesting insights into the mortgage market but registration is required to download the report.
REPORT(PDF): IMLA published Market Briefing: Sep 2024
They report “The recovery in the buy-to-let market that started early in the year has continued to pick up steam” with “Buy-to-let lending for house purchase was up 22% in the three months to July, relative to the previous three months”.
REPORT: IFS reported on Capital Gains Tax reform
They report the rate differentials across different assets are “unfair and create a range of undesirable distortions” and suggest “aligning marginal tax rates across all forms of gains and income, while reforming the tax base”.
REPORT: Localis reported on planning for flood resilience
The report “reviews the policy landscape for flood resilience in new and existing developments” and “provides practical policy recommendations to ensure climate resilience can be built into the national effort to address the housing crisis”.
REPORT: Barclays reported on “The Right-sizing Revolution”
They suggest “with the right incentives, an estimated 3.8m households could be motivated to ‘right-size’, unlocking capacity in the housing market” but “recognise that there is no silver bullet to unlock right-sizing”.
CORPORATE: Grainger published Trading Update
They report “like-for-like rental growth at 6.3%” and “whilst we expect rental growth to ameliorate somewhat, we still expect levels to be above the long term historic average for FY25”. Their portfolio was “fully let” at the end of September with 97.4% occupancy.
CORPORATE: PRS REIT published Full Year Results
They report “rent collection at 99%”, “occupancy at 96% at 30 June 2024”, and “like-for-like blended rental growth of c.12% over the year on stabilised sites”.
CORPORATE: Vistry published Trading Update
They report that in their South Division: “the total full-life cost projections to complete 9 out of its 46 developments, including some large-scale schemes, have been understated by c. 10% of the total build costs”.
CORPORATE: Unite Students published Trading Update
They report “Like-for-like rental growth of 8.2% and occupancy of 97.5% for the 2024/25 academic year”.
Chart of the Week
This week the ONS published their mid 2023 population estimates for the UK and constituent countries. The release shows the estimated UK population in mid 2023 was 68.3 million, a 1% increase on the previous year. As the chart below shows, the driver of this growth was net international migration while the natural change (births less deaths) was negative across the UK thanks to large falls in both Scotland and Wales.
