DATA: ONS estimated GDP rose 1.4% in year to May 2024
They estimate GDP rose 0.4% compared to the previous month, leaving it 2.7% higher than the pre-pandemic peak in January 2020.
DATA: MHCLG published Right to Buy sales and replacements for 2023/23
They report “6,275 eligible sales, a decrease of 43% compared to 2022-23” and “3,046 replacements were funded in 2023-24 through receipts from eligible sales, a decrease of 16% compared with 2022-23”.
DATA: VOA published Council Tax: stock of properties 2024 data
They report “There were 27.0 million properties on the Council Tax list as at 31 March 2024, up from 26.8 million as at 31 March 2023” with “274,470 properties inserted into the Council Tax Valuation Lists in England and Wales, down from 291,710 in 2022 to 2023” and “49,060 properties deleted from the Council Tax Valuation Lists in England and Wales, up from 44,400 in 2022 to 2023”.
DATA: HMRC published Non-Domiciled Taxpayer data
They report “There is continued evidence of a recovery in numbers of non-domiciled taxpayers since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of newly arrived non-domiciled taxpayers increased to 12,900 in tax year ending 2023, up 18% from 10,900 in tax year ending 2022”.
DATA: ONS published Dataloft rental affordability for new tenancies data
The data shows rental (un)affordability hitting a new peak of 28.6% in June 2024, up from 26.9% in June last year and 25.3% in June 2019.
DATA: Bank of England published Credit Conditions Survey Q2 2024
They report “the availability of secured credit to households was unchanged in the three months to end-May 2024” and “was expected to increase slightly over the next three months to end-August 2024”. They also reported “demand for secured lending for house purchase increased in Q2 and was expected to be unchanged in Q3” but “the default rate on secured loans to households increased in Q2, and was expected to increase again in Q3”.
POLICY: DLUHC renamed MHCLG (again)
The Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities has returned to its previous name of the Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government and I’m having to change all my chart and data sources.
POLICY: Chancellor announced plans to “fix our planning system”
To meet their objective of delivering 1.5 million homes over the next five years (see Chart of the Week), they are proposing to “reform the National Planning Policy Framework, consulting on a new growth-focused approach to the planning system before the end of the month, including restoring mandatory housing targets”, “build on the spatial plan for Energy by expanding this to other infrastructure sectors”, “create a new taskforce to accelerate stalled housing sites in our country”, “support local authorities with 300 additional planning officers across the country”, and “changes not only to the system itself, but to the way that ministers use our powers for direct intervention”.
REPORT(PDF): RICS published Residential Market Survey for Jun 2024
They report “Buyer demand metric continues to sit in slightly negative territory” and “National house prices are still seeing some downward pressure” but “the outlook does appear to be brightening somewhat, with near-term sales expectations improving noticeably”.
REPORT: House of Commons Library published multiple research briefings
They include Planning for nationally significant infrastructure projects, Revocation of planning permission, Building regulations and safety, Housing and net zero, and Developer contributions.
REPORT: Shelter published a plan to deliver social rented homes
The report provides a number of recommendations on how to deliver 90,000 social rented homes per year. The majority of those homes (60,000) would be provided by a “new, redesigned Affordable Homes Programme and change fiscal rules to incentivise growth investment”.
REPORT: Lichfields reported on major developed sites in the Green Belt
The report “looks at how current national Green Belt planning guidance is affecting development of local Green Belt policies and the importance for businesses to be aware of this and how they can influence the process”.
REPORT: Savills reported on Investment in UK Operational BTR
They report “100,000 BTR homes now delivered by investors, funding the development of 542 apartment schemes” and “£35bn invested by institutions in UK BTR” but “£300bn more is needed to meet future household growth in the private rented sectors”.
REPORT: ASI reported on a history of bad planning policy
They suggest “the 1947 Town and Country Planning Act (TCPA), has significantly constrained housebuilding, resulting in a backlog of 4.3 million homes and substantial economic penalties”.
CORPORATE: Unite Group published Trading Update
They report “94% of rooms are now reserved for the 2024/25 academic year, ahead of our typical leasing pace and slightly below the record reservation rates last year (2023/24: 98%)” and this gives them “confidence in delivering rental growth of at least 7% (previously 6%) and occupancy of 98-99% for the 2024/25 academic year”. They also report no “meaningful impact from the removal of visas for family members of international postgraduate taught students, which reflects the single-occupancy nature of our properties”.
CORPORATE: Vistry published Trading Update
They report “Total completions up c. 8% to c. 7,750 (H1 23: 7,143) units” and are “On track to deliver more than 18,000 (FY23: 16,118) completions in FY24, underpinned by strong forward sales position”. They also report “The Group’s sales rate in the period averaged 1.211 (H1 23: 0.86) units” and “The year on year increase reflects both stronger demand and the transition of our business to our 100% Partnerships model”.
CORPORATE: M Winkworth published Trading Update
They report “Following expectations that interest rates had hit their peak in January, the sales market picked up significantly in Q1 2024 and, despite rates remaining unchanged, improved sentiment on the UK economy maintained this momentum. Winkworth’s sales agreed in H1 2024 were 19% higher than the comparable period in 2023. With transaction times still extended, however, we would expect many of the sales agreed in H1 2024 to complete in H2 2024”. They also report “Lettings activity remained positive in H1 2024, albeit increased sales activity and affordability ceilings having been reached led to a greater supply of rental properties and a fall in applicants”.
CORPORATE: Barratt published Trading Update
They report “Net private reservations per active outlet per week of 0.58 (FY23: 0.55)(3) including a contribution of 0.08 (FY23: 0.10) from the private rental sector and additional sales to registered providers of social housing” and “Total home completions at the upper end of our guidance range for FY24 at 14,004 (FY23: 17,206)”. They also report “Given the expected profile of sales outlet openings in FY25, we anticipate total home completions in a range of 13,000 to 13,500 in FY25”.
CORPORATE: MJ Gleeson published Trading Update
They report “Net reservation rates* over the last six months averaged 0.63 per site per week (H2 FY2023: 0.67). Excluding multi-unit agreements, net reservation rates improved to 0.50 per site per week (H2 FY2023: 0.42) net of an improved cancellation rate of 18%”.
CORPORATE: Springfield Properties published Trading Update
They report “The Group expects to report private housing revenue for FY 2024 of c. £185m (2023: £253.4m), reflecting the impact of the market conditions”.
Chart of the Week
The new government has set a housing target of 1.5 million over the next five years. It is our understanding that this target is for England only and based on net additions (there has been a lot of press commentary based on UK data using misleading housebuilding data). The chart below shows the profile of supply in recent years along with an estimate for 2023/24. The actual data is due out in November but both EPC and Council Tax data suggest net additions of around 220,000 for the year. If delivery is to hit 1.5 million over the following five-year period then net additions will need to grow by 10.6% each year, with delivery of over 360,000 in the final year to make up for under-delivery during the earlier years. Unfortunately, the need to make up for under-delivery could be even larger as lead indicators for supply in the first few months of 2024/25 suggest it is falling, especially in London and the south of England. Hitting 1.5 million this parliament will be a challenge and it is more likely that we see the progress needed to hit this target in the next parliament.
