DATA: ONS estimated monthly GDP rose 1.4% in year to Jul 2025
The data shows monthly GDP was 4.3% above its pre-pandemic peak in January 2020.
DATA: ONS published construction output data for Jul 2025
They report “Total construction output is estimated to have grown by 0.6% in the three months to July 2025” and “the main contributors to the increase were private housing repair and maintenance, and infrastructure new work, which grew by 3.8% and 2.1%, respectively”.
DATA: ONS published family spending data for 2023/24
They report “Average weekly household expenditure was £623.30, a nominal increase of £55.60 (10%) from the previous year; after accounting for inflation there was a real-terms increase of £15.40 (3%)”. It’s my understanding that this data is used by mortgage lenders to calibrate affordability testing.
DATA: ONS published monthly direct debit failure rates and values
The data from Pay.UK and Vocalink shows the average direct debit failure rate for mortgages was 0.98% in August 2025, similar to the rates seen over the last two years. The average mortgage direct debit value increased to £1,002, the first time it’s been over the £1k threshold and 5.6% higher than last year.
DATA: ONS published Dataloft rental affordability data for Aug 2025
The latest data on the actual cost of private rents as a proportion of the renter’s income increased to 30.1% in August – the highest reading since the series began in 2017.
DATA: UK Finance published data on later life mortgage lending
The latest data, for Q2 2025, shows “There were 33,130 new loans advanced to older borrowers in Q2, up 0.49 per cent year on year” and “The value of this lending was £5.2bn, which was up 3 per cent compared with the same quarter a year previously”.
DATA: HBF published housing pipeline report for Q2 2025
The data on the number of planning permissions is covered in Chart of the Week below.
DATA: FCA published mortgage lenders and administrators return data
Commentary on the data for Q2 2025 is available from the FCA, BoE and our Digging Deeper slide deck.
DATA: FCA published Mortgage Charter uptake data
They report “In the latest 3-month period (May to July 2025) around 489,000 mortgages locked into a new deal up to 6 months ahead of maturity; this compares to around 341,000 mortgages in the previous 3-month period (February to April 2025)”.
DATA: Financial Market Expectations For BoE’s Bank Rate
The chart provides a summary for the expected future level of Bank Rate based on daily data. The One Year figure was 3.59% on the 11th Sep compared to 3.61% on the 4th Sep.
DATA: New Build Energy Performance Certificates, England
This chart provides a summary of the number of EPCs on new build properties, a useful leading indicator for net additions. The 52-week rolling total was 205,181 for the week commencing 1st Sep, down from 206,530 the previous week.
POLICY: Steve Reed appointed Secretary of State for MCHLG
He has promised to “build baby build”. Best of luck to him in light of the above data.
REPORT(PDF): RICS published residential market survey for Aug 2025
They report “New buyer enquiries fell for the second consecutive month, with a net balance of -17%, compared with -7% in July” and “Agreed sales slipped more sharply, with a net balance of -24% (down from -17% last month)” while “Respondents expect sales to remain largely stagnant over the coming quarter”. They also report “Overall house price gauge dropped to -19%, extending the downward trend”.
REPORT: JRF reported on rebalancing the market through tax reform
They report “fiscal reform has successfully dampened demand from private landlords, driving down home purchases into the PRS and flatlining the size of the sector” while “reduced demand from private landlord purchases has benefited residential buyers, particularly FTBs – there are now around 1 million more owner-occupiers than if the trend which preceded the 2016 reforms had been followed”.
REPORT: RF on the finances of low-to-middle income families
They report “that while some households are managing to save more and carry less debt, many remain just one setback away from difficulty” and “Savings levels are worryingly low”.
REPORT(PDF): GLA published London Housing Market Report
They report “Growth in average private rents across all tenancies has been falling through 2025, as growth in rents for new tenancies slowed markedly (and by some measures turned negative)” and “Measures of housebuilding activity in London has fallen to its lowest level in a decade”.
REPORT: Knight Frank published The Residence Report
The report explores “the growth of the global luxury residential sector, the rise of purpose-led brands and the art of curating community”.
REPORT: Savills reported on affordable housebuilding at scale
The report “focuses on identifying where the need for sub-market housing is greatest, which tenures are highlighted as effective in meeting local housing needs, and how delivery might be balanced to ensure it is future-proofed against changing conditions over housing market cycles”. They also reported on the London development market.
REPORT(PDF): HFI reported on boosting housing delivery
They suggest “tackling environmental red tape, supporting owner occupier buyers, firing up affordable housing, sorting out the building safety backlog along with targeted funding and investment for local areas” could increase housebuilding.
CORPORATE: Unite Students published Trading Update
They report “Across our operational portfolio 94% of rooms have been sold for the 2025/26 academic year as at 7 September 2025” and “Our sales to date support rental growth of 4-5% and we continue to target occupancy of at least 97%”.
CORPORATE: Empiric Student Property published Trading Update
They report “Occupancy for the academic year 2025/26, as at 7 September 2025, was 84 per cent., an increase of 7 percentage points since the 77 per cent. occupancy reported in Empiric’s interim results on 14 August 2025” and “like for like rental growth continues to track around 4 per cent for the academic year 2025/26”.
CORPORATE: Vistry published Half Year Results
They report “Total completions of 6,889 (H1 24: 7,792) units, 12% down on the prior year, reflecting the expected lower level of partner demand in the first half” and “The Group’s sales rate averaged 1.023(H1 24: 1.21) with total average selling price increasing by 4% to £283k (H1 24: £273k) reflecting changes in mix”.
CORPORATE: The Property Franchise Group published Interim Results
They report “lettings growth was modest given landlord caution ahead of the proposed Renters Rights Bill” and “sales and financial services both benefitted from improved transaction levels, supported by reduced mortgage rates and changes to stamp duty thresholds”.
Chart of the Week
HBF published their latest Housing Pipeline report, showing the number of homes granted planning permission in Q2 2025 was the lowest quarterly figure since 2012 and the total number per year has fallen to just 222,000 across England. Meanwhile, the latest weekly new build EPC data shows net additions are probably around 200,000 per year – well below the levels required to hit the government’s target. In their commentary, the HBF suggest “Ministers need to look beyond tweaks to the planning system and take a proper look at the market fundamentals that ultimately determine how many homes can be built”. As we wrote last week, there is a short-term crisis in demand that is not being tackled by policy.
