DATA: ONS estimated GDP rose 1.3% in year to Oct 2024
This was slightly higher than the previous month’s figure of 1.0% despite a 0.1% monthly fall due to a decline in production output. GDP was 2.7% higher than the pre-pandemic peak (Jan 2020).
DATA: ONS report construction output fell 0.4% in Oct 2024
They report “The decrease in monthly output came solely from a fall in repair and maintenance (1.3%) as new work grew by 0.2%”.
DATA: ONS published Housing Purchase Affordability for 2023
See Chart of the Week for more detail.
DATA: Zoopla reported private rents rose 3.9% in year to Oct 2024
They report this was the lowest rate for three years and “Rental inflation ranges from a high of 10.5% in Northern Ireland to a low of 1.3% in London over the last 12 months”. They also report “The imbalance between supply and demand is narrowing but will remain an ongoing characteristic of the rental market over 2025” and “Average UK rents are expected to rise by 4% in 2025, with large cities and London lagging while rents rise in more affordable areas”.
DATA: BoE/FCA published MLAR data for Q3 2024
The Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Return provides detailed data on the state of the mortgage market with analysis published by both the Bank of England and FCA. We also publish a Digging Deeper slide deck.
DATA: FCA published Mortgage Charter uptake data
They report “Between July 2023 and October 2024, the monthly payments on around 214,000 mortgages were reduced as people switched to temporarily paying interest-only or extended their mortgage term. This is around 2.6% of regulated mortgage contracts”.
DATA: Scottish Gov launched interactive publicly-owned land map
The map shows “the location and range of much of the public land in Scotland” and “Users can explore information on individual land parcels, including its ownership and size”.
DATA: BoE published Inflation Attitudes Survey for Nov 2024
They report “Median expectations of the rate of inflation over the coming year were 3%, up from 2.7% in August 2024”.
DATA: Financial Market Expectations For BoE’s Bank Rate
The chart provides a summary for the expected future level of Bank Rate based on daily data. The One Year figure was 3.94% on the 11th Dec compared to 3.93% on the 4th Dec.
DATA: New Build Energy Performance Certificates, England
This chart provides a summary of the number of EPCs on new build properties, a useful leading indicator for net additions. The 52-week rolling total was 217,768 for the week commencing 2nd December, up from 216,979 the previous week.
POLICY: MHCLG published National Planning Policy Framework
The update to the NPPF includes higher housing targets (Lichfields have the details while Savills provide their summary), a definition of “grey belt” along with “golden rules” on green belt delivery, and the already announced funding for 300 additional planning officers (though it might need to be 304 after recent arrests in Leeds). They also published a working paper on the reforms, the results of the 2023 Housing Delivery Test and released details of funding for local authorities looking to undertake a review of their greenbelt.
POLICY: Homes England launched S106 Affordable Housing Clearing Service
“Housebuilders can use the service to provide details of affordable homes they have planning permission to build, alongside private homes, but have been unable to find a buyer for. This information is then available for RPs and LAs to view.”
REPORT(PDF): RICS published residential market survey for Nov 2024
They report “New buyer enquiries data again points to a slight pick-up in demand, although sales appear to have levelled-off over the month” and the “National house price indicator continues to move higher” while the “Near-term outlook for activity moderately positive despite the recent rise in mortgage interest rates”.
REPORT: Resolution Foundation published Housing Outlook Q4 2024
They report “Housing costs are a significant driver of child poverty in the UK today” and “Repegging Local Housing Allowance to actual rents is a sure-fire way to reduce child poverty for private renters” while “Long-term investment in social housing could reduce the cost of benefit support”.
REPORT: Shelter published Homelessness in England 2024
They report “326,000 people are in temporary accommodation (17% increase in one year) – most of whom are in families with children”, “3,900 people are sleeping rough on any given night (10% increase)”, and “There are a further 16,600 single people in hostels or other homeless accommodation”.
REPORT: Centre for Cities reported on new towns and land value capture
They identify “possible locations for large-scale urban extensions, each with good access to one of 15 major cities by public transport” and find that “across viable sites, the total potential land value capture is £193 billion, or £6.4 billion a year assuming a 30-year development period” but “Most of the potential land value capture is generated in the Greater South East”.
REPORT: National Audit Office reported on MHCLG
The overview provides an introduction to MHCLG and their examination of the department’s spending and performance.
REPORT: Institute for Gov reported on devolution and urban regeneration
The report uses six case studies to “set out how mayors can play a leading role in the regeneration of disused, deprived and deindustrialised urban areas”.
REPORT: Housing LIN reported on older people’s housing preferences
They report “Many older adults prefer to remain in their current homes, emphasising the importance of ‘ageing in place’” and “Factors such as affordability, accessibility, and emotional attachment to current homes create challenges for downsizing or relocating”.
REPORT: Create Streets and Britain Remade on creating new towns
They publish a “Plan to rapidly build 12 new towns a “first step” in tackling Britain housing crisis”. They suggest the plan “could provide over 550,000 well-designed and appropriately located homes” and “The new homes would boost the economy by £13-28 billion annually by improving access to high-paying jobs in well-connected cities”.
REPORT: Propertymark published Housing Insight Report for Oct 2024
They report an increase in registered buyers and new sales instructions but the lack of any seasonal adjustment limits any meaningful analysis.
CORPORATE: Springfield Group published Trading Update
For the six months ended on 30th November, they report “The Group entered the new financial year experiencing an improvement in private housing reservation rates as homebuyer confidence returned. This momentum was sustained through the first half, resulting in an increased number of private housing reservations being secured in H1 2025 compared with H1 2024. In addition, selling prices have remained resilient across the Group’s brands”.
Chart of the Week
This week ONS published their Housing Purchase Affordability analysis for 2023. They report that “in London, the average home was not affordable for any household income decile; in three other regions, the average home was only affordable to the top decile”. This is highlighted by only the 90th percentile income bars falling below the 5 years of income line in the South East, East, and South West in the chart below. However, this overstates the relative affordability as the chosen ratio of 5 times income was a good benchmark for the typical mortgaged buyer in 2021 but it has fallen to 4.4 times income as rates have risen.
