DATA: ONS estimated monthly GDP rose 0.8% in year to Jan 2026
The monthly estimate will undoubtedly be revised in the future but the annual growth reported was lower than the 0.9% annual average growth rate recorded since Jan 2020.
DATA: ONS published construction output statistics for Jan 2026
They report “Total construction output is estimated to have fallen by 2.0% in the three months to January 2026” and out of the nine sectors “the main negative contributor to the decrease was private new housing, which fell by 6.3%”.
DATA: FCA published Mortgage Lending and Administration Return data
The data provides a summary of mortgage lending activity. BoE also publish commentary on the data and we produce a Digging Deeper slide deck. This was going to be my chart of the week but the sharp rise in mortgage rates is more important. It shows the rise in the value of gross advances for mortgages with a loan-to-value ratio to over 90% and up to and including 95% in recent quarters. Meanwhile, lending above 95% remains limited.
DATA: FCA published Mortgage Charter uptake data
They report “In the latest 2-month period (November to December 2025) around 232,000 mortgages locked into a new deal up to 6 months ahead of maturity” and “the number of mortgages that, after locking into a new deal up to 6 months before maturity, subsequently locked into an alternative deal, was around 48,000 in November to December 2025”.
DATA(PDF): Zoopla reported UK asking rents rose 1.9% in year to Jan 2026
They report “Competition for homes is easing, with enquiries per property falling to 4.8, the lowest for six years” and “Rent growth has slowed to 1.9%, down from 2.8% last year, as affordability pressures limit further increases”, but “While conditions are improving, rental supply remains 23% below pre-pandemic levels, meaning rents are still expected to rise through 2026”.
DATA: Registers of Scotland published Country of Origin report for 2025
The report “shows where land and property owners and tenants were based at the time of purchase, including locations within Scotland, the rest of the UK, and beyond”.
DATA: BoE published Inflation Attitudes Survey for Feb 2026
They report “32% of respondents said that interest rates on things such as mortgages, bank loans and savings had risen over the past 12 months, down from 38% in November 2025” and “35% of respondents thought that interest rates had fallen over the past 12 months, up from 26% in November 2025”.
DATA: Financial Market Expectations For BoE’s Bank Rate
The chart provides a summary for the expected future level of Bank Rate based on daily data. The One Year figure was 3.87% on the 11th Mar compared to 3.42% on the 4th Mar.
DATA: New Build Energy Performance Certificates, England
This chart provides a summary of the number of EPCs on new build properties, a useful leading indicator for net additions. The 52-week rolling total was 210,898 for the week commencing 2nd Mar, similar to the 210,992 total for the previous week.
POLICY: MHCLG published guidance on recording land agreements
The guidance provides details on the information that should be provided to HM Land Registry on “certain land agreements – such as an option, conditional contract, pre-emption right, or certain rights associated with promotion agreements” in their aim to improve transparency in the land market.
POLICY: FCA warned second charge mortgage firms on standards
Their review found issues including “Affordability assessments that appeared to overlook key living expenses”, “Advice that steered customers towards debt consolidation when it was not clear if it was appropriate”, “Inadequate record keeping”, and “Unclear fees, often added to loans, making comparisons difficult”.
REPORT(PDF): RICS published Residential Market Survey for Feb 2026
They report “Buyer demand dips amid renewed concerns over the interest rate outlook” as “With respect to new buyer enquiries, the headline series posted a net balance of -26% in February, down from -15% last month” and “the agreed sales measure posted a net balance of -12% (marginally weaker than -9% last time) at the aggregate level”.
REPORT: IFS reported on council tax support
The report provides details on the benefit including who receives it and how it affects household incomes.
REPORT: CaCHE reported on designing a new housing agency in Scotland
The report “summarises an initial round of interviews with the housing sector, including input from government” and “indicates that there are several design choices and consequences of these decisions, as well as guidance about what government should or should not do when bringing the new agency into being”.
REPORT(PDF): Savills/LPDF reported on “The Case for Demand Support”
They report “Sales rate[s] are lowest in South East, especially for smaller builders, despite this being where housing need is highest” and suggest “A renewed equity loan scheme could support up to 85,000 additional completions by March 2029”. Care should be taken using the NHBC data on due to market share issues – especially amongst smaller housebuilders.
REPORT: End Furniture Poverty reported on its extent in 2026
They report “Around six million individuals continue to live without at least one essential furniture item. Deep furniture poverty—defined as living without three or more items—remains at approximately one million people, unchanged since 2022”. They also report “More than a quarter of people in furniture poverty report very or extremely negative effects on their physical health, and nearly a third report the same for mental health”.
REPORT: Create Streets on improving planning policy
They suggest the NPPF can be “tweaked to support more new homes, more new bedrooms and better places”.
REPORT: Residential Freehold Association on the Leasehold Bill
The report suggests “Capping ground rents on existing leases at £250 would deliver limited benefits to households, while imposing significant economic, distributional and investment costs”.
NEWS: Moneyfacts reported on uncertainty in the mortgage market
On the 11th of March, they reported “In the past 48 hours alone, 472 mortgage products have been withdrawn – roughly equivalent to 6.5% of the total residential market”.
CORPORATE: Persimmon published Full Year Results
They report “Market conditions have been supportive – including greater mortgage availability and real wage growth – which, when combined with our increasing outlet base, has underpinned growth” and “In the first nine weeks of this year our net private sales rate per outlet per week was 0.73, up 9% compared to the same period last year (2025: 0.67)”.
CORPORATE: Savills published Final Results
They report “Residential market conditions were more subdued, with cautious buyer sentiment and ongoing tax-related uncertainty ahead of the Autumn Budget weighing on activity at the prime end of the market” but “That said, the Budget ultimately delivered the least worst outcome for this market, contributing to a significant surge in completions in December”.
CORPORATE: Berkeley Group published Trading Statement
They report “The trading environment over this period has remained constrained by the impact on consumer confidence of geo-political events and macro-economic uncertainty. However, sales enquiries remain good and the value of underlying reservations has been recovering towards the levels seen over the summer prior to the pre-Budget hiatus.”
Chart of the Week
The war in the Middle East has led to a sharp increase in interest rate expectations and hence mortgage rates. On the 11th March, Moneyfacts reported the average two-year fixed-rate rose to over 5%, its highest level since August last year – though their average data tends to be weighted towards higher loan-to-values and hence more expensive. More anecdotally, the two-year fixed-rate that I locked in for my remortgage early last week at 3.94% (no fee) would now cost me 4.42%. Unfortunately, there appears to be limited strategic thinking from the US and it is unclear how long this war will continue to harm not just the global economy but also everyone caught up in it. Hopefully, it concludes quickly but I suspect we’ll be dealing with the ramifications of the last two weeks for years if not decades to come. In the meantime, the prospects for the housing market this year have been severely weakened at the start of what is normally the most active part of the year.
