DATA: ONS estimated monthly GDP was unchanged in Jul 2024
They report, despite two consecutive months of no growth, the annual rate of change increased to 1.2% (prev. 0.7%), leaving GDP 2.7% higher than immediately prior to the pandemic (Jan 2020).
DATA: ONS published Labour market overview
They report “Estimates for payrolled employees in the UK decreased by 6,000 (0.0%) between June and July 2024” and “The early estimate of payrolled employees for August 2024 decreased by 59,000 (negative 0.2%) on the month”. They also report “Annual growth in employees’ average regular earnings (excluding bonuses) in Great Britain was 5.1% in May to July 2024”.
DATA: ONS published Construction output statistics for Jul 2024
They report “Construction output is estimated to have grown by 1.2% in the three months to July 2024; this came from increases in both new work (1.6%), and repair and maintenance (0.8%)”.
DATA: ONS published Dataloft data on renter affordability
The data for August 2024 shows a new record high for the percentage of gross income spend on rent, at 29.6%. The data was 27.0% in August 2023 and 25.2% in August 2019.
DATA: FCA published Mortgage Charter uptake data
They report “Between July 2023 and July 2024, the monthly payments on around 188,000 mortgages were reduced as people switched to temporarily paying interest-only or extended their mortgage term. This is around 2.1% of regulated mortgage contracts”.
DATA: FCA published Mortgage Lenders and Administration Return stats
See Chart of the Week for more on loan-to-income ratios and our Digging Deeper for more detailed analysis.
POLICY: MHCLG introduced Renters’ Rights Bill to Parliament
It will “Abolish section 21 evictions”, “Ensure possession grounds are fair to both parties”, “Provide stronger protections against backdoor eviction”, “Introduce a new Private Rented Sector Landlord Ombudsman”, “Create a Private Rented Sector Database”, “Give tenants strengthened rights to request a pet in the property”, “Apply the Decent Homes Standard to the private rented sector”, “Apply ‘Awaab’s Law’ to the sector”, “Make it illegal for landlords and agents to discriminate against prospective tenants in receipt of benefits or with children”, “End the practice of rental bidding by prohibiting landlords and agents from asking for or accepting offers above the advertised rent”, “Strengthen local authority enforcement”, and “Strengthen rent repayment orders”.
POLICY: MADE Partnership launched as master developer
A joint venture between Barratt Developments, Homes England and Lloyds Bank will “act as master developer for multiple large scale, residential-led developments from 1,000 to more than 10,000 homes along with a variety of community facilities and employment uses”.
REPORT(PDF): RICS published residential market survey for Aug 2024
They report “New buyer demand rises noticeably over the month”, the “Number of sales agreed also improves, with near-term expectations pointing to further growth” and “National house price indicator moves out of negative territory”.
REPORT: Resolution Foundation reported on planning reform
They report “approval rates for ‘large’ developments (over 10 units) range from an average of under 60 per cent in the ten most restrictive local authorities, to over 90 per cent in the least restrictive” and “the new formula for calculating targets sees them increase by nearly 50 per cent on average in the most affordable half of local authorities, compared to just 10 per cent in the least affordable half”. They also suggest “Direct public investment will also be crucial to achieve the boost to social housing that the Government is targeting”.
REPORT: Tony Blair Institute reported on the urgent need to build more
They suggest “Plan for more homes in the right places”, “Enable efficiencies, innovation and the future use of AI by reforming the planning system” and “Align powers, incentives and veto points in the system”.
REPORT: JRF & BuiltPlace reported on the private rental sector
They report “Recent market fluctuations and higher interest rates are leading some amateur landlords to sell up” and “This could offer a chance for better-off renters to be first-time buyers, but the lowest income renters are those most likely to lose out unless policy responds”.
REPORT: Housing Forum reported on skills shortages in housing
They suggest “while the construction industry faces significant challenges in terms of skills shortages, there is a proactive stance towards addressing these issues through ongoing monitoring, investment in training, and more collaborative initiatives”.
REPORT: Nesta’s UK 2040 Options reported on economic growth ideas
Among the nine ideas, they suggest “Tackle the housing crisis by moving to a zone-led planning system that simplifies the rules for developers” and “Improve land use efficiency by introducing a land value tax”.
NEWS: HM Land Registry will increase information services fees by £4
From the 9th of December, their fees will increase by £4. For example the “inspection of an individual register or plan (by electronic means) will increase from £3 to £7”.
NEWS: Rightmove reported a surge in larger home listings
They report “The number of top-end homes coming to the market for sale – covering four-bedroom detached houses and all five bedroom or larger homes – is now 15% ahead of the same period last year” and “The East of England (+21%) and the South West (+20%) is where this trend is most prominent”.
CORPORATE: Winkworth published Interim Results
They report “Sales agreed have noticeably accelerated since the general election in early July 2024. This increase in activity has been fuelled by the highest number of properties on the market in the last five years and so reflects supply meeting demand rather than demand driving price increases. We therefore expect price increases to be modest in a new era of higher interest rates and taxation”.
CORPORATE: Harworth published Six Month Results
They report “We have continued to see strong demand for our serviced Residential land from a wide range of housebuilders, both national and regional, at prices in line with December 2023 book values”.
Chart of the Week
The FCA Mortgage Lenders Administration Return (MLAR) data provides a wealth of information on the state of the mortgage market. However, the detail it provides on loan-to-income ratios has tended to be rather limited over the last decade due to the increasing proportion of lending in its highest published category for joint borrowers (3.0 or over). However, the increase in mortgage rates has been so significant over the last two years that its impact is quite clear even within this group. As the chart below shows, the fall in gross advances since rates started rising has been almost wholly within this higher loan-to-income group, with the purple line falling 31% over the last two years.
