DATA: ONS estimated monthly GDP rose 1.5% in year to Dec 2024
They report “Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in December 2024, largely because of growth in the service sector” and was 3.1% higher than the pre-pandemic peak in January 2020.
DATA: MoJ published mortgage and landlord possession stats for Q4 2024
The latest release shows mortgage claims, orders, warrants and repossessions all increased in Q4 2024 compared to the same period the previous year. Landlord possession actions have all increased over the same period too. However, both mortgage and landlord possession actions remain below pre-pandemic levels.
DATA: NHBC published 2024 housebuilding data
They report “104,232 new homes registered in 2024, 1% down on 2023 (105,071)” however this data severely undercounts housebuilding data and their market share is around 60% in England.
DATA: ONS published past and projected period and cohort life tables
They report “Boys born in the UK in 2023 can expect to live on average to age 86.7 years and girls to age 90.0 years based on projections of cohort life expectancy, which take into account future improvements in mortality”.
DATA: ONS published local authority clustering data
They undertook “clustering and statistical nearest neighbours analysis, which groups UK local authorities with similar characteristics and outcomes”. The data is available here.
DATA: Financial Market Expectations For BoE’s Bank Rate
The chart provides a summary for the expected future level of Bank Rate based on daily data. The One Year figure was 3.87% on the 12th Feb compared to 3.86% on the 5th Feb.
DATA: New Build Energy Performance Certificates, England
This chart provides a summary of the number of EPCs on new build properties, a useful leading indicator for net additions. The 52-week rolling total was 211,939 for the week commencing 3rd Feb, down from 212,998 the previous week.
POLICY: MHCLG launched plans to make home buying quicker and cheaper
They announced “a 12-week project to identify the design and implementation of agreed rules on data for the sector, so that it can easily be shared between conveyancers, lenders and other parties involved in a transaction. HMLR will also build on its work in digitising property information and lead 10-month pilots with a number of councils to identify the best approach to opening up more of their data and making it digital, whilst the government pushes ahead with plans for digital identity verification services including in the property sector.”
POLICY: MHCLG announced a further £350m for affordable housing
They report “Up to 2,800 extra homes will be built through a £300 million boost to the Affordable Homes Programme, with half of these homes for social rent” along with an extra £50m for the Local Authority Housing Fund for better quality temporary accommodation.
POLICY: New Towns Taskforce published Interim Report
The report “provides an update from the Taskforce on its progress in developing recommendations for a new generation of new towns, outlining the programme’s unique benefits, vision and aims, as well as publishing its emerging principles for what makes a great new town”. MHCLG also report “Over 100 sites across England have come forward to be considered for next generation of new towns”.
POLICY: MHCLG and HMT committed to a mortgage guarantee scheme
“The government has committed to launching a new, permanent, comprehensive mortgage guarantee scheme” and the “Economic Secretary to the Treasury has written to the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) following their response to the government’s call for regulators to support growth, setting out the government’s support for their proposal to review mortgage rules”.
POLICY: MHCLG provided new funding for local plan delivery
They “announced new funding to support local authorities with local plan delivery for those at Regulation 18 stage”.
REPORT(PDF): RICS published Residential Market Survey for Jan 2025
They report “Buyer demand broadly flat in January but sales volumes are still expected to rise gently over the months ahead” while “House prices continue to rise steadily at the national level” and there was a “Further pick-up reported in new instructions to sell”.
REPORT: IPPR reported on strategic planning for green prosperity
The report “finds that the government will have to tackle unproductive land speculation and ramp up strategic planning capability if it wants to meet its housebuilding targets”. Unfortunately, the report findings are compromised by using undercounting housebuilding data and an overly simplistic approach to measuring the delivery of permissions.
REPORT: FCA reported on mortgage pricing by demographic characteristics
They “did not identify any evidence of differences in mortgage pricing across different demographic groups from this research. Instead, we find that groups appear to have different types of mortgage products”.
REPORT: CaCHE reported on land supply for rural housing in Scotland
They recommend “establishing a Housing Land Agency to acquire and prepare land for development, based on similar models in England and Ireland”, increased resource for Local Place Plans, and “explore the cost effectiveness of tax incentives for landowners to release land as well as the introduction of new land acquisition tools and regulations to empower local authorities to acquire land in the public interest”.
REPORT: NHF reported on finding a safe home after hospital
They suggest “Collaboration between Integrated Care Boards and housing providers, supported by a national strategic direction set by the government, “Health and housing integrated into the long-term housing strategy and NHS 10 Year Plan”, and “Greater capital investment in supported housing and long-term revenue funding for hospital discharge schemes via capital grants. Reinstating the £300m Housing Transformation Fund and strategic planning with longer term financial settlements for local authorities”.
REPORT: Resolution Foundation reported on rooftop solar panels
They report “Poorer households have the most to gain from lower bills but are least able to access solar panels without policy support, due to prohibitive up-front costs” and “a well-target package of support, solar panels could help to significantly reduce fuel poverty”.
REPORT: Savills reported on Co-Living in the UK
They report there are “9,000 operational Co-living units and 5,500 under construction” while the “latest generation of Co-Living schemes have seen strong lease-up rates and high occupancy levels, underpinned by a varied tenant pool”.
REPORT(PDF): Knight Frank reported on the UK student housing market
They report “Nearly £575 million was invested in the UK purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) market in the final quarter of 2024, taking annual investment to £3.87 billion” with “66 deals completed in 2024, comfortably above the five-year annual average of 57 transactions”.
REPORT(PDF): Knight Frank reported on residential development land
They report “England land values flat amid economic challenges and cautious developer activity, with little expectation of significant movement in the near term”.
CORPORATE: Bellway published Trading Update
They report “The private reservation rate per outlet per week increased by 18.6% to 0.51 (2024 – 0.43), including a contribution from bulk sales of 0.06 (2024 – 0.03)” and “While we have been encouraged by a seasonal pick-up in customer enquiries and reservation rates in the early weeks of the current spring selling season, we remain mindful of the sensitivity of customer demand to mortgage affordability and the evolving economic backdrop”.
CORPORATE: Gleeson published Results for the half year
For the half year to 31st Dec 2024, they report “Net reservation rate increased to 0.55 per site per week (0.44 excluding multi-unit orders), compared to 0.41 per site per week last year (0.39 excluding multi-unit orders)” and a “Gross margin on home sales of 20.6% (H1 23/24: 24.5%) reflecting flat pricing, sales incentives and extended prelims”. They also report “Net reservation rates increased by 45% to 0.77 in the four weeks to 31 January 2025 (2024: 0.53 in the four weeks to 2 February 2024)”.
CORPORATE: Barratt Redrow published Half year results
For the half year to 29th Dec 2024, they report “Net private weekly reservation rate up 33% to 0.60 compared to 0.45A aggregated performance for Barratt and Redrow in the comparable period (HY24: 0.48R)” and “expect to deliver c. 22,000 homes per annum in the medium term, with operating margin recovering to c. 15% and return on capital employed (including land creditors) to c. 20%”. They also report “Our net private weekly reservation rate from 30 December 2024 to 2 February 2025 was 0.60 (2024: 0.60A), with no private rental sector or other multi-unit sales (2024: 0.03A)”.
Chart of the Week
This week Halifax published their estimates of mortgaged first-time buyer numbers for 2024 using partial UK Finance data along with their in-house data. At national level, the number bounced back from last year’s low of 287,000 to 341,000 but this was still below the 351,300 recorded in 2019. One region that did record a big increase on 2019 levels was London where the number of mortgaged first-time buyers was 9.3% higher in 2024 than the year prior to the pandemic. However, a comparison with 2014 numbers shows it was the only region to have fewer first-time buyers than a decade ago – highlighting the impact of both the affordability and turnover squeeze that’s been seen in the capital.
