Weekly Summary: 14th June 2024

DATA: ONS estimated GDP rose 0.6% in year to Apr 2024

The latest estimate reported no growth in GDP during April, with three consecutive monthly falls in construction output. GDP was estimated to be 2.2% above its pre-pandemic peak.

DATA: ONS reported on the UK labour market

They report “signs that the labour market may be cooling, with the number of vacancies still falling and unemployment rising, though earnings growth remains relatively strong”.

DATA: DLUHC published planning applications for Q1 2024

They report “The number of residential decisions made was down 4% from the same quarter a year earlier, with the number granted down 7% from the same quarter a year earlier. 900 major residential decisions were granted, down 11% from the same quarter a year earlier and 6,900 major residential decisions were granted, down 6% from the same quarter a year earlier”. They also report the number of homes granted planning permission in the year to Q1 2024 was 236,000, down 13% on the same period last year.

DATA: HBF published Q1 2024 Housing Pipeline Report

The report provides more detail on the Glenigan data for the number of homes granted permission (chart above). It reports “In London, 7,613 units were approved in Q1 2024. This is the lowest quarterly figure since 2012” and the number of sites granted permission was “the lowest quarterly figure since the Housing Pipeline Report begun recording, in 2006 and was a 10% drop on the previous quarter”.

DATA: ONS published housing affordability for local area, year to Mar 2020

Based on analysis of MSOAs, they report 45.7% of areas in England and Wales had house price to income ratios of five or less in the year to March 2020. They also report “All 50 of the least affordable local areas were in London”.

DATA: FCA published Mortgage Charter uptake data

See Chart of the Week for more detail.

DATA: FCA/BoE published mortgage lending statistics for Q1 2024

While the value of gross mortgage advances in Q1 2024 was 12% lower than the same period last year, the value of new commitments – a leading indicator – was 31% higher. Further detail can be found in our Digging Deeper slide deck.

DATA: BoE published Inflation Attitudes Survey for May 2024

They report “64% of respondents said that interest rates on things such as mortgages, bank loans and savings had risen over the past 12 months, down from 69% in February 2024”.

POLICY: Labour published manifesto (PDF)

POLICY: Conservatives published manifesto (PDF)

POLICY: Liberal Democrats published manifesto (PDF)

POLICY: Reform published “Contract”

POLICY: Green Party published manifesto (PDF)

REPORT(PDF): RICS published May Residential Market Survey

They report “New buyer enquiries see a modest dip alongside a general softening in momentum reported across the sales market”, “National house price indicator slips back into slightly negative territory” and “Near-term expectations still point to the recovery getting back on track in the months ahead”.

REPORT: CaCHE published projections of tenure and poverty in older age

They report “Tenure projections suggest that there will be a notable increase in the proportion of people aged 65+ living in the private rental sector, rising from 4% in 2022 to 13.2% in 2040” and “If relative poverty rates among the 65+ population within each tenure remain the same as the current rates (2010-2022), we are likely to see a small overall increase in relative poverty amongst older people, from 17.4% in 2022 to 19.1% in 2040”.

REPORT: Centre for Cities reported on big cities in the UK and the G7

They report “the prosperity gap that exists between the UK and the G7 top performers of the USA, France and Germany is the result of the underperformance of the UK’s secondary cities” and suggest “a long-term strategy, backed up with funding and reforms”.

NEWS: Moneyfacts reported rise in mortgage products

They report “Borrowers had 6,629 mortgage deals to choose from at the start of June, the largest number available since February 2008” but “the average shelf-life of a product almost halved to 15 days, compared to 28 days the previous month”.

CORPORATE: Crest Nicholson published Half-year Report

They report “Sales per outlet per week (SPOW) of 0.47 (HY23: 0.54) with average outlets at 45 (HY23: 48)” and “Average selling prices have remained stable year on year”. They also reported “Build cost inflation has moderated further from mid-single digit percentages to flat year on year” and their “Review of completed site costs, supported by an external consultant, is now concluded resulting in a one-off charge of £31.4m (previous estimate £15.0m), of which £25.5m is treated as an exceptional item”.

CORPORATE: Bellway confirmed offer for Crest Nicholson

They confirmed “on 7 May 2024, it made its latest non-binding all-share offer to the Board of Crest Nicholson to acquire the entire issued, and to be issued, share capital of Crest Nicholson (the “Possible Offer”), which has been rejected by the Board of Crest Nicholson”.

Chart of the Week

This week the FCA published an update on the uptake of the Government’s Mortgage Charter. They report “a minimum of around 1.1 million mortgages benefited from one or more of the options set out in the Charter”.  They also report, and as the chart below shows: “Between July 2023 and April 2024, the monthly payments on around 159,000 mortgages were reduced as people switched to temporarily paying interest-only or extended their mortgage term. This is around 1.8% of regulated mortgage contracts”.

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