DATA: ONS estimated monthly GDP rose 1.4% in year to Nov 2025
They report that in the month to November 2025: “Services grew by 0.3%, production grew by 1.1%, and construction fell by 1.3% in November 2025”.
DATA: BoE published Credit Conditions Survey for Q4 2025
They report “Lenders reported that the availability of secured credit to households increased in the three months to end-November 2025 (Q4) and was expected to increase slightly over the next three months to end-February 2026 (Q1)”. They also report “Lenders reported that demand for secured lending for house purchase decreased in Q4, and was expected to decrease in Q1”.
DATA: ONS published construction output data for Nov 2025
They report “Total construction output is estimated to have fallen by 1.1% in the three months to November 2025; this is the largest fall since March 2023 (1.4% fall)” and “Anecdotal evidence suggests that delays in work and customer spending were affected by economic uncertainty ahead of the autumn budget announcement”.
DATA: MHCLG published building control housebuilding data for Q3 2025
This data undercounts absolute numbers of homes started and completed but is a useful leading indicator for housebuilding. They report the number of seasonally adjusted housebuilding starts was 3% higher than the same quarter in 2024 while the number of completions was 9% lower. They also estimate that “that 309,600 net additional homes have been delivered in England between the start of Parliament, on 9 July 2024, and 11 January 2026”.
DATA(PDF): Rightmove reported asking rents rose 2.2% in year to Q4 2025
The average monthly asking rent outside London was £1,370, 2.2% higher than last year, while in London it was £2,716, 0.8% higher. They report “2025’s average of ten enquiries for every available rental home is higher than the pre-pandemic 2019 average of six, but lower than 2024’s figure of fourteen” and “The number of available homes to rent is 9% higher than last year, but still a third (-33%) lower than ten years ago”.
DATA: ONS published Dataloft data on actual rental affordability
The average percentage of gross income spent on rent was 28.8% in December 2025, down slightly from 29.1% the previous month and the same month last year.
DATA: Financial Market Expectations For BoE’s Bank Rate
The chart provides a summary for the expected future level of Bank Rate based on daily data. The One Year figure was 3.27% on the 14th Jan compared to 3.31% on the 7th Jan.
DATA: New Build Energy Performance Certificates, England
This chart provides a summary of the number of EPCs on new build properties, a useful leading indicator for net additions. The 52-week rolling total was 210,201 for the week commencing 5th Jan, higher than the 209,984 total for the previous week.
POLICY: Scottish Government delivered Scottish Budget 2026-27
It includes “the introduction by April 2028 of two new council tax bands for the most expensive properties in Scotland, those worth more than £1 million, on an up-to-date valuation”. They also “intend to lay regulations later this month which, subject to Parliamentary approval, will remove the existing legislative cap on Council Tax premiums” and this would “enable local authorities to determine the level of Council Tax premium that applies from 01 April 2026 to second homes and long-term empty homes”.
POLICY: MHCLG, HMT & DfT announced Northern Growth Strategy
It includes a commitment to “deliver long-awaited faster and more frequent rail across the North” and “Improving residential housing density in city centres and connectivity within and between city regions”.
REPORT(PDF): RICS published residential market survey for Dec 2025
They report “New buyer enquiries and agreed sales indicators still in slightly negative territory” and “Aggregate house prices continue to display marginally negative momentum” but “Both near-term and twelve-month sales expectations turn significantly more positive”.
REPORT: IFS reported on the 1990s housing boom and social mobility
They find that “children of parents who saw higher wealth gains [during the boom] were not more likely to own, but those that did own owned more valuable homes” and “male children of parents who did better from the property boom were relatively more likely to enter occupations at the top of the earnings distribution (and less likely to be in the middle) than other male children, while for women we find no significant effect”.
REPORT: CaCHE reported on housing quality and health
The report “shows the substantial financial implications of poor housing in Scotland” but also “stresses the necessity for increased investment in research, including ongoing monitoring and evaluation, to enable more precise quantification of the costs associated with inadequate housing in Scotland”.
REPORT(PDF): IMLA published market briefing for Dec 2025
They report “Improving affordability is fuelling growth in buy-to-let lending, which was 22% up on its 2024 monthly average in the year to October. House purchase buy-to-let was a little less buoyant than remortgages but still ahead by 14% over the same period”.
REPORT: Labour Together reported on the Oxford-Cambridge corridor
It suggests that to go big and quick, it needs “A single powerful development corporation that can bypass local politics”, “A parallel regulatory process to speed it up”, and “Be self-funding to free up money for the rest of the country”.
REPORT: CPS reported on house building
It is correct to question actual housebuilding delivery given the government’s aspirations, but CPS does it using data that is totally unsuited to a critical analysis. The housebuilding starts data they use undercounts activity, especially in urban markets like London. Therefore, this analysis should be ignored.
REPORT: TwentyCi published Property & Homemover 2025 report
They report “During 2025, over 1.7 million properties were listed for sale. This is the highest level in the last 10 years, and a 2.1% increase compared to 2024” and “We have now exceeded 1.25 million properties with a Sale Agreed in 2025”. They also report “The average time to get a sale agreed on a property in 2025 was 77 days. This is the highest time to sell in the last 9 years and 5 days longer than 2024.”
CORPORATE: Persimmon published 2025 Trading Statement
They report “Total completions were up 12% to 11,905 homes (2024: 10,664)” and the “net sales rate per outlet per week excluding bulk sales was up 4% to 0.59 (2024: 0.57). Including bulk sales our net private sales rate per outlet per week was in line with the prior year at 0.70 (2024: 0.70), with some softening seen in the Build to Rent market in Q4 ahead of the Budget.”
CORPORATE: Vistry published Trading Update
They report “Total units were down c. 9% on prior year at c. 15,700 (FY24: 17,225) including c. 3,000 (FY24: 3,216) from JVs”. They also report “Full year Partner Funded units reduced by c. 8% to c. 11,600 (FY24: 12,633) mainly reflecting partners’ funding uncertainty in H1. Additional affordable housing volumes increased by c.30% in the second half compared to the same period last year, benefitting from the increased clarity of future funding following June’s Spending Review. Conversely, during the second half a number of active PRS partners paused delivery while they refinanced which contributed to a c.25% reduction in PRS volumes versus the prior year.”
CORPORATE: M Winkworth published Trading Update
They report “Following a strong performance in sales during the first half of FY25, and continued growth in lettings, trading conditions softened more than expected in the second half of FY25. This reflected a broader slowdown in market activity ahead of the Autumn Budget, when a number of transactions were deferred.”
CORPORATE: Savills published Year End Trading Update
They report “In the UK, the Group’s largest market, heightened uncertainty surrounding the delayed Autumn Budget had a similar subduing effect, particularly on the prime residential market.”
CORPORATE: Taylor Wimpey published Trading Statement
They report “UK home completions excluding joint ventures were in the middle of our guidance range at 10,614 (2024: 9,972)” and “Our UK net private reservation rate for 2025 was 0.75 homes per outlet per week (2024: 0.75). Excluding the impact of bulk deals, the net private sales rate was 0.65 (2024: 0.67). The full year cancellation rate was 15% (2024: 15%).”
CORPORATE: Foxtons published Year End Trading Update
They report “Lettings is expected to remain resilient in 2026, supported by tenant demand and good stock levels, which underpin rental pricing and transaction volumes” and “Sales began 2026 with a lower under-offer pipeline than the previous year, as a result of the significant sales market disruption around the Autumn Budget and a very strong comparative period in Q4 2024”.
CORPORATE: MJ Gleeson published Trading Update
They report “Demand for new homes remained subdued but steady through the Period with buyers’ lack of confidence in the current economic environment compounded further by commentary during the run-up to the late Autumn Budget”. They also report “Net reservation rates during the Period increased to 0.75 per site per week (0.48 excluding bulk reservations) from 0.55 per site per week (0.44 excluding bulk reservations) during the same period last year”.
Chart of the Week
The Q3 building control data published by MHCLG this week wasn’t great news for the government’s 1.5million target. However, the weekly number of new build energy performance certificates – a leading indicator for net supply – is looking a bit more positive. The national rolling 52-week total has been slowly increasing since its lows in September, hitting 210,200 last week. There’s still some way to go but at least the number is rising – thought the regional data suggests the recovery might be limited to the north of England.
