DATA: ONS estimated monthly GDP rose 1.1% in year to Mar 2025
They estimate monthly GDP rose 0.2% in March and was 4.1% higher than the pre-pandemic peak in January 2020.
DATA: ONS published UK labour market overview
They report “Estimates for payrolled employees in the UK decreased by 47,000 (0.2%) between February and March 2025 and fell by 63,000 (0.2%) between March 2024 and March 2025” and “Annual growth in employees’ average regular earnings excluding bonuses in Great Britain was 5.6% in January to March 2025, and annual growth in total earnings including bonuses was 5.5%”.
DATA: ONS published construction output stats for Mar 2025
They report “Monthly construction output is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in March 2025” and “Anecdotal evidence from survey returns noted the positive effects of warmer and milder weather”.
DATA: UK Finance published mortgage arrears & possessions for Q1 2025
They report “In the first quarter of 2025, there were 90,140 homeowner mortgages in arrears. This was a two per cent decrease compared with Q4 2024” and “The number of BTL mortgages in arrears also fell, down six per cent compared with the previous quarter, to 11,830”.
DATA: MoJ published mortgage & landlord possessions for Q1 2025
“Compared to the same quarter in 2024 there were increases in mortgage possession claims from 5,182 to 6,765 (31%), orders from 3,013 to 4,624 (53%), warrants from 2,919 to 3,517 (20%) and repossessions by county court bailiffs from 769 to 1,092 (42%)”.
DATA: MHCLG published English Housing Survey 2023/24 data and reports
The releases include a report on the housing crisis (see Chart of the Week for more), a fact sheet on health and housing, a fact sheet on low carbon technologies, data on parking, mains gas, and EV chargepoints, and data on leaseholders.
DATA: Scottish Gov published Housing Statistics 2024
They report “As of 31st March 2023, there were 2.7 million dwellings estimated in Scotland. Of these, 60% were owner-occupied, 3.7% were vacant or second homes, 13.2% were privately rented or lived in rent-free, and 23% were social rented properties”. They also report “New housing supply was 20,364 in 2023-24, a decrease of 3,984 homes (-16.4%) since 2022-23. The majority of new housing supply in 2023-24 was new build (97.9%), with small proportions of rehabilitations (0.3%) and net conversions (1.8%)”.
DATA: NHBC published housebuilding stats for Q1 2025
They report “New home registrations up 36% in Q1 2025 vs. Q1 2024” and “Private sector registrations up 62% in Q1 2025 vs. Q1 2024”. Please note that these figures only account for around 60% of the market and are more representative of the volume housebuilder market than city centres.
DATA: Financial Market Expectations For BoE’s Bank Rate
The chart provides a summary for the expected future level of Bank Rate based on daily data. The One Year figure was 3.71% on the 14th May compared to 3.42% on the 7th May.
DATA: New Build Energy Performance Certificates, England
This chart provides a summary of the number of EPCs on new build properties, a useful leading indicator for net additions. The 52-week rolling total was 208,549 for the week commencing 5th May, up slightly from 208,482 the previous week.
REPORT: Welsh Gov published Affordable Housing Taskforce report
The report contains several recommendations to “unblock sites in the 20k programme that are at risk of delay and explore opportunities to utilise viable public sector sites for meanwhile use” and “Making system changes to streamline the delivery of more homes for social rent”.
REPORT: IfG reported on prioritising homelessness prevention
The report, by IfG and Centre for Homelessness Impact, suggests “A fundamental shift is needed to focus on preventing homelessness both within homelessness services and as a shared responsibility across all public services, from education and healthcare to social care and employment support”. They recommend “The Government should create a £100m strategic investment fund, the Preventing Homelessness Endowment, to drive innovation, scale prevention, build capacity, and ensure effective performance management”.
REPORT: Centre for Cities reported on the urban housebuilding market
They suggest reforms around five “anti-supply measures” to increase city centre delivery. The five areas are “Minimum space standards for one-bed flats”, “Dual aspect and overheating regulations”, “Dual staircases in residential building at 18 metres”, “The Building Safety Regulator”, and “Biodiversity Net Gain”.
REPORT: DEMOS reported on the “MIMBY Majority”
They report “67% of the public are ‘MIMBYs’ – Maybe In My Backyard – open to new homes in their area under the right circumstances” and “argues for a shift in government strategy towards involving the unheard ‘MIMBY majority’”.
REPORT: Localis reported on the Local Government Pension Scheme
The report suggests that “by creating appropriate investment vehicles and funding principles, and providing clear government incentives and support, the LGPS can become a significant source of patient capital for addressing the UK’s chronic under-investment in genuinely affordable and social housing”.
NEWS: Knight Frank published house price forecasts
Compared to their forecasts last November, they have “revised up our estimate for UK prices to 3.5% from 2.5% this year due to the improving rate landscape. The figures have also risen slightly over the following three years, taking the cumulative five-year total to 22.8% from 19.3%”.
CORPORATE: Vistry published Trading Update
They report “The Group’s sales rate for the year to date has increased since our March announcement to 0.91 (2024: 0.94) from 0.59 and averaged 1.32 (2024: 1.17) in the last eight weeks”. They also report “In the Open Market, we have seen an improvement in our sales rate over the past eight weeks and we expect this trend to continue” and “We are seeing strengthening demand from the PRS market and are particularly encouraged by the momentum of investment funds being raised in this sub-sector of the market”.
CORPORATE: Savills published AGM Statement
They report “Most prime residential markets have remained resilient through Q1 with the UK performing better than last year in advance of the increase in Stamp Duty” and “the uncertainty created by recent macro-economic and geopolitical events has resulted in a short term slow-down in global transaction activity”.
CORPORATE: Grainger published Half Year Financial Results
They report “4.4% like-for-like rental growth (FY24: 6.3%) with BTR rental growth 4.2% (new lets 3.1% and renewals 4.9%), whilst regulated tenancy rental growth was 7.0%” and they “achieved high occupancy at 96.0% (FY24: 97.4%)”.
Chart of the Week
This week MHCLG published an English Housing Survey report looking at experiences of the housing crisis and one of the topics covered is concealed households. The survey identified approximately 1.5million households with a concealed household – an adult who can’t afford to rent or buy elsewhere. This figure was slightly higher than the 1.4million identified in 2013/14. These 1.5million households contained approximately 1.8million concealed adults, with the majority of them aged under 34 (see chart below), sons or daughters of the household reference person, and living in an owner occupied home. London and the South East had the highest rate of concealed households (7.8% and 7.4% of total households respectively), while the North East had the lowest rate, at 3.6%.
