DATA: ONS published UK labour market overview
There are still serious issues with the Labour Force Survey (LFS) with the ONS warning about the “challenges in assessing the coherence” between different statistics. They report the number of payrolled employees peaked in May 2024 and has fallen by nearly 60,000 people since then while the LFS shows the employment rate has increased and the unemployed rate has fallen since April. They also report average earnings excluding bonuses rose 4.9% in the year to June-August 2024, 1.9% when inflation adjusted.
DATA: ONS published Consumer price inflation data for Sep 2024
They report CPI rose by 1.7% in the year to September 2024, down from 2.2% the previous month. This was the first time it has been below the 2% target since 2021.
DATA: ONS reported UK house prices rose 2.8% in the year to Aug 2024
They report this was higher than the revised 1.8% for the previous month though revisions continue to be significant due to the Land Reg Lag. They also report annual price inflation was highest in the North West of England (4.6%) and lowest in the South West (0.8%).
DATA: ONS published Price Index of Private Rents for Sep 2024
See Chart of the Week for more detail.
DATA(PDF): Rightmove published Rental Trends Tracker for Q3 2024
They report asking rents outside London rose by 5.2% in the year to Q3 2024, down from the 6.8% recorded in the previous quarter. Rents in London rose by 2.5% over the same period, down from 3.7% last quarter. They also report “The average number of enquiries per rental property is now 15, down from 23 last year, but nearly double the 8 recorded in 2019” and “More than a fifth of rental properties are currently seeing a reduction in the advertised rental price before finding a tenant, compared with 16% last year”.
DATA: Scottish Gov published Scottish Housing Market Review for Q3 2024
They report mortgaged movers in Scotland have increased their mortgage repayments as a proportion of gross income from “a low of 15.7% in Q3 2020 to 18.5% in Q2 2024” while for first time buyers it increased from “a low of 15.3% in Q2 2020 to 19.8% in Q2 2024”.
DATA: Leeds City Council published Council Tax Bands for All Properties
Thanks to the efforts of Owen Boswarva, Leeds have updated their data on individual properties for 2024. The exciting thing this time is that they’ve included UPRNs which allows us to easily map the data. Check out Owen’s blog for a pre-geocoded version.
DATA: Financial Market Expectations For BoE’s Bank Rate
The chart provides a summary for the expected future level of Bank Rate based on daily data. The One Year figure was 3.65% on 17th October compared to 3.83% on 10th October.
DATA: New Build Energy Performance Certificates, England
This chart provides a summary of the number of EPCs on new build properties, a useful leading indicator for net additions. The 52-week rolling total was 220,698 for the week commencing 7th October, down from 221,561 the previous week.
POLICY: MHCLG announced Brownfield Land Release Fund funding
The £68 million will go to 54 councils to “turn neglected land into new homes”.
POLICY: MHCLG published evaluation reports
They published a Towns Fund early process evaluation insights, UK Shared Prosperity Fund place-based evaluations, and a UK Shared Prosperity Fund intervention-level evaluation.
REPORT: Regulator of Social Housing published Sector risk profile 2024
They warn “. Over the past year, the risks to local authorities’ and private registered providers’ viability have intensified and their financial performance continues to weaken” while “Last year, and for the first time since 2009, the cost of servicing debt exceeded net earnings”. They also report “The strongest financial pressures are seen in London and other urban areas where large numbers of flats need building safety works”.
REPORT(PDF): CIH published UK Housing Review: Autumn Briefing Paper
The briefing provides a number of short articles covering subjects from “Boosting homeownership and regulating the private rented sector” to “Providing temporary accommodation for homeless households and for asylum seekers”.
REPORT: JRF reported on the housing benefit freeze
They recommend “The Government must unfreeze Local Housing Allowance and permanently re-link it to cover the bottom 30th percentile of local rents” to avoid private renters on housing benefits being around £700 worse off per year over this parliament.
REPORT: CaCHE reported on Scottish affordable housing supply
They report on the difficulties facing the Housing to 2040 strategy and provide a number of recommendations including recommitting to a smaller number of priorities.
REPORT: NHF reported on “Making every contact count”
They suggest “For social landlords, making every contact count means using routine and planned interactions with residents as opportunities to gather information about the condition of their homes, and their needs”.
REPORT: Bank Underground reported on 30+ year mortgages
Despite the risks, they “judge these risks are relatively small and are mitigated by rules from the FCA that guard against the risk that mortgage payments become unaffordable, and by the FPC’s LTI policy that limits risky borrowing in the aggregate”.
REPORT: Savills reported on delivering 300,000 homes per year
They suggest “More demand support, including grant funding for affordable housing” will be needed for the government to hit its housebuilding target for England.
REPORT: Savills reported on London’s private rented sector
The research, for London Councils and Trust for London, found “From April 2021 to December 2023, 45,000 rental properties were sold without replacement” and “This accounts for 4.3% of London’s privately rented home”.
REPORT: TwentyCi published Property & Homemover report for Q3 2024
They report “Sales Agreed are up by 23.4% compared to Q3 2023 and are higher than in 2019” and “Exchanges are up by 10.9% compared to Q3 2023” while “New Instructions are up by 8.8% compared to Q3 2023”.
REPORT: Propertymark published Housing Insight Report for Aug 2024
They report the average number of homes for sale per member branch hit a two year high in August while the number of market appraisals, a leading indicator, also hit a two year high.
CORPORATE: Bellway published Preliminary Results
They report “The private reservation rate per outlet per week in the second half of the financial year increased to 0.58 (six months to 31 July 2023 – 0.53) compared to 0.43 in the first half (six months to 31 January 2023 – 0.38), driven by the improving trading backdrop and a seasonal uplift through the spring”. They also report the reservation rate per outlet per week increased to 0.59 in the nine weeks since the first of August.
Chart of the Week
ONS published their latest Price Index of Private Rents and it shows average rents in England increased by 8.5% in the year to September while in London they increased by 9.8% and in Yorkshire & Humber they increased by 6.3%. The index is based on the average price change of the entire privately rented housing stock so will take some time to reflect the slower growth reported by the likes of Rightmove (see above). Last week the Office for Statistics Regulation published a quality assessment of the index and identified five requirements before it can become accredited official statistics.
