Weekly Summary: 19th May 2023

DATA: ONS published UK labour market update

The early estimate of payrolled employees fell in April for the first time since February 2021. However, this data is provisional. The unemployment rate for Jan-Mar was 3.9% and total wages (including bonuses) rose 5.8% in the year to March. However, real (inflation adjusted) wage growth was negative at -3%.

DATA: UK Finance reported an increase in mortgage arrears in Q1 2023

They report the number of owner-occupier mortgage in arrears of over 2.5% of the balance was 1.9% higher than the previous quarter, though it remains low as a proportion of total mortgages (0.87%). Meanwhile, the number of buy-to-let mortgages in arrears increased by 16% over the quarter though the rate is also very low (0.34%).

DATA: MoJ published mortgage and landlord possession stats for Q1 2023

The release shows increases in claims, orders, and repossessions compared to the same quarter last year though levels are still relatively low and at least some of the increase will reflect the backlog in court activity following the pandemic.

DATA: ONS published “Families and Households in the UK: 2022”

The release, based on Labour Force Survey data, estimates there were 28.2 million households in the UK in 2022. This was a 6.1% increase since 2012.

DATA: ONS published “Household characteristics by tenure”

Based on 2021 Census data, this analysis investigates “Variations in tenure by household size, household family composition, multi-generational households, and household level information on the age, ethnic group, religion, employment status and occupation of household members”.

DATA: ONS published assessment of subnational tenure estimates

The release compares results from the 2021 Census with the ONS estimates of subnational dwellings and household by tenure. The estimates using the GSPREE were found to have a  strong correlation with the 2021 Census results.

DATA: DLUHC published EWS1 data on mortgage valuations for flats

The data shows “During the January-March 2023 quarter, an EWS1 form or equivalent was required by lenders for 8% of mortgage valuations for flats in the UK, a slight increase on 7% in October-December 2022”.

POLICY: The Renters’ (Reform) Bill was introduced to Parliament

DLUHC state “Eleven million tenants across England will benefit from safer, fairer and higher quality homes thanks to a once-in-a-generation overhaul of housing laws”.

REPORT: Resolution Foundation reported on further mortgage pain

Their analysis finds “Despite interest rates nearing their peak, only half of the households that will eventually be impacted have been impacted so far and only a third of the mortgage pain they will collectively bear has been felt”.

REPORT: Nesta reported on financing green home upgrades

The report tested options to help homeowners decarbonise and found “55% of people would make green home upgrades in the next three years if they had some financial support”.

REPORT: Bayes Business School reported on flood risk

The report finds “one out of six properties in England are at risk of flooding and around half of those affected properties can be characterised as high risk”. It also reports “Between 2050 and 2080, property-level flood risk is projected to increase further by 8%. Our empirical model suggests that one percentage point increase in properties’ flood risk is associated with a decline of 0.11-0.19% in both sold and asking price” and “confirms that the effect of flood risk is asymmetric and buyers of lower-priced properties are more sensitive towards flood risk compared to buyers of more expensive properties”.

REPORT(PDF): IMLA published intermediary mortgage market tracker

The data for Q1 2023 shows the conversion of Decision in Principles to completion fell to 34%, down from 44% in Q1 last year.

REPORT: Savills reported on the Build to Rent market in Q1 2023

They report “The first quarter of 2023 saw £820m transacted”. This was the lowest Q1 figure since 2018.

CORPORATE: Savills published AGM statement

They warn “As capital values progressively adjust to higher interest rates global capital transaction volumes for the year to date are at the lowest levels seen for a decade” and this is impacting their commercial transaction business but “Although volumes are lower than last year, as expected, prime residential markets have performed well with a particular emphasis on the London market”.

CORPORATE: Vistry published trading update

They report the “Group sales rate continues to improve with the average weekly private sales rate per site per week at 0.83 for the year to date” but “Excluding bulk sales in Housebuilding, the Group sales rate in the period was 0.65”.

Chart Map of the Week

We’ve been busy doing work using Built-Up Areas this week and we should hopefully have something to share soon. There are loads of fascinating things that appear when exploring them, especially when looking at areas with zero or very low resident populations such as military bases and weapon testing sites. However, we’ve spotted something a bit different in the 2021 Built-Up Areas. The map below shows the 2011 areas in blue with the 2021 areas in pink. You can see the expansion of some markets like Milton Keynes (centre-right). However, there’s clear line emerging between London (bottom-right) and Birmingham (top-left). At first we wondered if it might be our own version of the Saudi line city (Wikipedia) but closer investigation suggests HS2 building sites have been picked up as built-up areas in the most recent release. You can explore them on the ONS Open Geography Portal.

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