Weekly Summary: 1st May 2026

DATA: Nationwide reported UK house prices rose 3.0% in year to Apr 2026

They report this “somewhat surprising” figure was higher than the 2.2% reported last month. Their index is following a similar trajectory to the start of 2020 and, for the time being, is on track to end the year up around 5% – based on usual seasonal patterns.

DATA(PDF): Zoopla reported UK house prices rose 1.3% in year to Mar 2026

They report “Homes are selling as fast as last year across more than half of UK regions, despite higher mortgage rates” and “Buyer demand rebounds after Easter to its highest level since the Middle East conflict began”.

DATA: BoE published effective mortgage rate data for Mar 2026

The data, covering both purchases and remortgages, shows the average rate on new advances was 4.0% in March, down from 4.11% the previous month and at its lowest since January 2023. The average rate on outstanding balances fell slightly, down to 3.93% from 3.95% the previous month.

DATA: BoE reported 63,531 approvals for house purchase in Mar 2026

The number of mortgage approvals for house purchase was 0.8% lower than last year while approvals for remortgaging were 52% higher than the same month last year.

DATA: HMRC reported 104,070 residential transactions in Mar 2026

The seasonally adjusted figure was 41% lower than last year – when there was a spike in transactions marking the end of the stamp duty holiday – but 5% above the pre-pandemic average for 2013-2019.

DATA: MHCLG published statutory homelessness stats for England

The data for Q4 2025 shows “On 31 December 2025, 134,210 households were in temporary accommodation, which is an increase of 5.0% from 31 December 2024” and “There were 85,800 households with children in temporary accommodation, an increase of 5.9% from last year”.

DATA: Scottish Gov published Landlord Register data for Mar 2026

The number of registered landlords fell by 6,228 (-2.6%) in the year to March but the number of registered properties increased by 216 (+0.1%).

DATA: ONS London private rental market data for 2025/26

The “statistics show the count of rents, mean, median, lower quartile and upper quartile”.

DATA: ONS published 2024-based national population projections

See Chart of the Week.

DATA: Financial Market Expectations For BoE’s Bank Rate

The chart provides a summary for the expected future level of Bank Rate based on daily data. The One Year figure was 4.58% on the 29th Apr compared to 4.28% on the 22nd Apr.

DATA: New Build Energy Performance Certificates, England

This chart provides a summary of the number of EPCs on new build properties, a useful leading indicator for net additions. The 52-week rolling total was 210,169 for the week commencing 20th Apr, slightly higher than the 209,777 total for the previous week.

POLICY: Renters’ Rights Act comes into force today

The changes include “the ban on Section 21 no fault evictions, and new rules on pets and rent increases”, and they have published an overview for landlords and tenants.

POLICY: MHCLG confirmed further Right to Buy reforms

The reforms include “Increasing the minimum eligibility period from three to ten years before tenants can apply to buy their home”, “Amending discount rules so that discounts start at 5% of the property value and increase by 1% each year up to the maximum discount of 15% of the property value or the cash cap (whichever is lower)”, and “A 35-year new build exemption period so new social homes cannot be sold under Right to Buy for 35 years after they are built”.

POLICY: Housing Minister speech on leasehold reform

He committed to the government’s leasehold reforms, promising “to dismantle this archaic and iniquitous system” but it would take time as it can’t be done quickly: “Not overnight. Not in a single piece of legislation. Not recklessly. But decisively, and for good.”

POLICY: Bank Rate maintained at 3.75%

“At its meeting ending on 29 April 2026, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8–1 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%. One member voted to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4%.”

REPORT: BoE published Monetary Policy Report

They report “Household consumption growth remains subdued and real income growth is projected to fall in the near term” and “Low-income households are more exposed to cost increases than high-income households”.

REPORT: NLA published London Tall Buildings Survey 2026

“This year’s survey highlights a changing development landscape. While planning applications have seen a modest dip, the pipeline remains strong, with activity concentrated in central locations and a new generation of very tall schemes coming forward. At the same time, delivery continues to be challenged by viability pressures, funding constraints and wider market conditions.”

REPORT: L&G launched a partnership model for affordable housing

“Partnership RPs are joint ventures between a Housing Association and an institutional investor. Under the model, a Housing Association sells homes to the joint venture and uses capital from the sale to build new affordable homes and upgrade existing stock. All homes remain within the regulated social housing sector, with rents and resident protections unchanged and the condition of the homes improved.”. They suggest “If adopted widely, new affordable home delivery could reach up to 800,000 in a decade – without expanding the Government’s grant programme”.

REPORT: Lichfields reported on the Scottish planning system

The report “focuses on the conditions contributing to the recent decline in planning consents, and particularly the role of recent changes in worsening the conditions for housebuilding”. They also report “Without an alternative route to permission, an insufficient flow and range of allocated sites has the inevitable effect of slowing housebuilding, below its already critical levels” and “This is exacerbated by the allocations that are made being disproportionately in weaker market areas with viability challenges”.

REPORT: Savills reported on Scottish planning

They suggest “questions remain about whether planning and development policy is doing enough to help deliver the homes Scotland needs” and “There is reason for cautious optimism in the new homes sales market, with rising site visitors and stable sales rates. But applications and completions of new homes have fallen two years in a row, and many local authorities are now behind schedule for adopting new local plans.”

REPORT: Knight Frank reported on development land values

They report “Residential development land values weakened in early 2026 as renewed geopolitical uncertainty and persistent viability pressures weighed on demand”.

REPORT: Knight Frank reported on the build to rent market

They report “Just shy of £700 million was invested in the UK BTR market in the first three months of 2026 across 12 transactions, marking the slowest Q1 since 2018”.

CORPORATE: Travis Perkins published First Quarter Trading Update

They report “In the Merchanting segment revenue was down (2.3)% on a like-for-like basis as construction activity levels remain subdued” and “Against this market backdrop these businesses are making progress in passing through manufacturer price increases and delivering further procurement benefits, whilst continuing to maintain market share”.

CORPORATE: Taylor Wimpey published Trading Statement

They report “Our net private sales rate for the year to 26 April 2026 was 0.74 per outlet per week (2025: 0.77), with a cancellation rate of 14% (2025: 16%)” and “Excluding bulk sales, our net private sales rate for the year to 26 April 2026 was 0.72 per outlet per week (2025: 0.76)”. They also report “As a result of rising energy costs, build cost inflation is now expected to be low to mid single digit for 2026, with cost pressure and surcharges starting to come through from our supply chain”.

CORPORATE: Watkin Jones published HY 2026 Trading Update

They report “Whilst the adverse movement in the UK interest rate outlook since early March has created greater uncertainty with regards to future transactional liquidity conditions, the Group will continue to be agile in optimising its pipeline whilst continuing to diversify its revenue streams”.

CORPORATE: Persimmon published AGM Trading Statement

They report “net private sales per outlet per week excluding bulk sales up 3% to 0.67 (2025: 0.65)” and “Our private forward sales have increased by 7% to £1.80bn with a private average selling price of c.£306,900, up 5% compared to the same point last year”. They also report “While enquires have softened slightly in the last few weeks, sales have remained resilient” and “There are early signs of increased inflation in the supply chain, driven by higher energy costs, which are likely to impact the second half of 2026 and into 2027”.

CORPORATE: MJ Gleeson published Trading Update

They report “Net reservation rates for the 11 weeks to 24 April were 0.88 per site per week (0.59 excluding bulk reservations) compared to 0.86 per site per week (0.64 excluding bulk reservations) during the same period last year” and “There has been modest build cost inflation since the start of the calendar year whilst underlying selling prices on open-market and partnership sales have been broadly stable”.

Chart of the Week

This week ONS published their 2024-based population projections. The updated projections feature slower population growth, with the UK population hitting 71million in 2034 compared to 72.2million in the 2022-based projections. With negative natural change (more deaths than births) over the projection period, they note that “Net migration remains the only source of expected population growth, though at a lower level than in our previous projections”. However, even these figures may be optimistic as the scenario is based on the scenario that “net migration will reach the long‑term assumption of 230,000 a year from mid-2027 onwards” and it’s possible that we’ll see negative net migration in coming years (if not already).

It’s always useful to put population projections in the context of previous versions and the actual outcome in population. While some projections have ended up looking prescient for a period (e.g. the 1975-based ones), it’s quite often because the errors in the constituent components cancelled each other out. ONS also note that the current projections suggest the old-age-dependency ratio will “increase from 280 in mid-2024 to 310 in mid-2034, and reach 329 by mid-2049”.

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