DATA: Rightmove reported UK asking prices rose 1.0% in year to Oct 2024
They report a smaller than usual monthly increase but strong activity levels with a 29% annual increase in sales agreed, a 17% annual increase in people contacting agents, and “The number of available homes for sale is 12% higher than a year ago – and the highest per estate agent since 2014”.
DATA: ONS reported an 8% annual increase in SDLT in Sep 2024
The Stamp Duty Land Tax data, covering both commercial and residential property, is a useful leading indicator for next week’s HMRC transaction data.
DATA: MHCLG published Energy Performance Certificate data for Q3 2024
They report the total number of EPCs for new build properties in England for the year to Q3 2024 was 221,452. The number of new build EPCs in Q3 2024 was 13% lower for houses and 16% lower for flats than the same quarter last year.
DATA: UKF published Buy-to-Let Lending update for Q2 2024
There were 14,955 new BTL loans for house purchase in Q2 2024, 22.5% higher than the same period last year. They also report the average rental yield was 6.9% across the UK and the average Interest Cover Ratio was 196%.
DATA: Financial Market Expectations For BoE’s Bank Rate
The chart provides a summary for the expected future level of Bank Rate based on daily data. The One Year figure was 3.74% on 24th October compared to 3.65% on 17th October.
DATA: New Build Energy Performance Certificates, England
This chart provides a summary of the number of EPCs on new build properties, a useful leading indicator for net additions. The 52-week rolling total was 220,473 for the week commencing 14th October, down from 220,698 the previous week.
POLICY: MHCLG responded to the CMA housebuilding study
They “accepted the recommendations to bring forward a new consumer code for housebuilders and a New Homes Ombudsman service” and accepted in principle “greater protections for households living under private management arrangements”.
POLICY: Welsh Gov published White Paper on rental affordability
The paper includes: “proposals to improve rent data, including a requirement on landlords/and or agents to provide rent data to Rent Smart Wales; the development of a spatial rent map to show local area rent data; proposals on how to demonstrate a property is habitable; proposals to support people renting with pets; guidance around rent guarantors; and exploring the potential for Land Transaction Tax (‘LTT’) higher residential rates relief if properties are signed up to the Welsh Government’s Leasing Scheme Wales”.
REPORT: Radix published Housing Commission final report
The report “urges the Government to recognise that housing IS national infrastructure” and provides 15 recommendations.
REPORT: NEF reported on local investment in physical infrastructure
The report “presents local estimates of the size of the public capital investment need in England across four critical areas” including “£11.8bn of public investment outside London is needed annually to deliver 92,000 new social rent homes required to meet the housing need” and “£3.4bn of public investment across England is needed annually (£2.9bn of which is outside London) to retrofit the homes of all 3.18m fuel-poor households”.
REPORT: Leeds Community Homes reported on “Opportunities and challenges for black and minority ethnic community-led housing”
The report “highlights significant opportunities to diversify leadership and participation of community-led housing initiatives and makes recommendations to enhance the inclusion and contribution of black and minority ethnic communities to the community-led housing sector”.
REPORT: CaCHE reported on a Local Housing Systems Analysis of Govan
The report seeks to better understand housing requirements in the submarket of Glasgow while testing the effectiveness of doing a Local Housing Systems Analysis of a submarket.
REPORT: Zoopla reported on housing affordability
They report “40% of full time workers are unable to buy an average priced 2 or 3 bed home in Great Britain” and “Renting is more accessible than buying, with 27% of workers unable to afford rental costs despite fast growth in rents” while “There is a wide north-south divide in affordability and access to housing is worst for single earners and those on low incomes”.
REPORT: Savills reported on development land values
They report “Little change in greenfield development land values” and a “Mixed appetite for land” with PLC housebuilders returning to the market and partnerships prevalent but housing associations remain “largely absent”.
REPORT: Molior published London development quarterly report
They report “2024 is on track to see fewer new homes go under construction than any year since 2010, and 70% fewer than in the peak year of 2015”. The reasons for the decline include “Weak sales markets”, “Squeezed viability”, “Elevated construction risks”, the impact of improved fire safety regulations, and “A protracted and adversarial planning process”.
REPORT: HBF reported on the water efficiency of new build homes
They report “The average property in the UK uses around 150 litres of water per person per day” while new build homes use an average of 110 litres per person per day”.
REPORT: HBF reported on unspent developer contributions
They estimate “local authorities in England and Wales are sitting on over £8 billion of infrastructure payments by developers, including over £6bn from Section 106 agreements and almost £2bn raised through the Community Infrastructure Levy (CIL)”.
COPORATE: Barratt Redrow published Trading and Integration Update
They report a “Barratt Redrow private reservation rate from 22 August to 13 October of 0.67, 36.7% ahead of the pro-forma equivalent in FY24 of 0.49” and “Barratt standalone private reservation rate from 1 July to 13 October up 31.9% to 0.62 (FY24: 0.47)”. They expect “total home completions for Barratt Redrow are expected to be between 16,600 and 17,200 for FY25”. On the sales side, they report “At the end of September, the under-offer pipeline was 23% higher than the prior year”.
CORPORATE: Foxtons published Q3 2024 Trading Update
They report “Lettings market dynamics are broadly consistent with the first half. Rental prices remain in line with the prior year, tenant demand remains strong, and improving levels of available stock support the Group’s focus on driving new business volumes”.
Chart of the Week
MHCLG’s energy performance certificate (EPC) data has several uses beyond its headline measures on energy efficiency. It’s a useful leading indicator for new housing supply – specifically net additions as it captures conversions and changes of use. It also gives a good indicator for the size of properties (subject to all the usual issues about consistency of measurement etc) that tallies with other indicators such as the English Housing Survey. The latest release continues to show that new properties are, on average, bigger than existing ones (at least those that had an EPC during the period). It shows the average new house having 111m² in Q3 2024 compared to 100m² for existing houses and new flats having 62m² compared to 58m² for existing flats.
