Weekly Summary: 26th May 2023

DATA: Rightmove reported asking prices rose 1.5% in year to 13th May

The index showed a big monthly increase (1.8%) in the non-seasonally adjusted index though this possibly reflects the weighting of the index towards the upper end of the market. They also reported “Agreed sales numbers are currently just 3% behind the last more normal pre-pandemic market of 2019” and “The discount from final asking price to agreed sale price has steadied at an average of 3.1%, in line with normal market levels”.

DATA: ONS reported CPI rose 8.7% in year to April 2023

This was lower than last month’s figure of 10.1% as last year’s energy costs fell out of the comparison period but was above the previous two-year average annual rate of 8.5%.

DATA: ONS reported house prices rose 4.1% in the year to March 2023

The completions-based index reported a 0.9% seasonally adjusted monthly fall. London recorded the lowest annual percentage rise, of just 1.5%. This data may be heavily revised in the future due to the Land Reg lag.

DATA: ONS reported private rents rose 4.8% in the year to April 2023

The measure of all rents paid (rather than new lets) was slightly higher than last month’s figure of 4.7%.

DATA: ONS reported SDLT receipts of £1.1 billion in April 2023

The stamp duty land tax receipts, covering both residential and commercial property, were 33% lower than the same month last year.

DATA: ONS published long-term international migration estimates

The data shows net migration was 606,000 in 2022, reflecting the bounce-back in student numbers and people moving from Ukraine and Hong Kong.

DATA: DLUHC published 2022 council taxbase data for England

The release shows there were 25.2 million dwelling in England on the 12th September 2022. This was an increase of 238,000 over the year. They also published dwelling stock estimates for the 31st March 2022.

POLICY: FCA proposed to requirements to support borrowers permanent

They are consulting on their proposal to “make permanent requirements on lenders to support borrowers in difficulty, which were put in place during the pandemic”.

POLICY: Homes England published 2023-28 strategic plan

The plan sets out their mission, objectives, and how they’ll measure their performance.

REPORT: Geospatial Commission suggested new taskforce for land use

The report recommends: “Establish a Land Use Analysis Taskforce to bring together cutting edge data and scientific expertise to assess competing land use pressures, ensuring national priorities are delivered within the land available in the UK”.

REPORT(PDF): LUHC Committee reported on Funding for Levelling Up

They report “the method of delivering funding, the allocation process, and the extent to which different funds have been compatible with the needs of communities in the short and long-term is creating several obstacles for the policy’s success”.

REPORT: House of Commons Library on tackling the under-supply of homes

“This paper covers trends in housing supply and barriers and potential solutions to delivering more homes in England”.

REPORT: House of Commons Library on the growth in short-term lettings

“This paper examines the growth in short-term lettings and proposals for greater regulation of the sector in England” and it “provides a brief overview of the regulatory approaches in other countries”.

REPORT: Propertymark published April housing insights report

They report a 30% fall in prospective buyers compared to April last year and a 70% increase in available properties over the same period.

CORPORATE: Watkin Jones published half year results

They report “no new forward sales in the period” though have just announced one in Bristol. They also report the “Underlying residential for rent market continues to perform well with both strong tenant demand and rental growth in our core PBSA and BTR sectors”.

CORPORATE: Empiric Student Property published trading update

They report “Revenue occupancy for academic year 2023/24 now at 86% and continuing to track significantly ahead of prior year” and “Like for like growth in average weekly rents for academic year 2023/24 improving and now expected to exceed 7%”.

CORPORATE: Henry Boot published AGM statement

They report “Following a pause from buying land at the end of 2022, there are signs of housebuilders returning to the market” and “The Build-to-Rent (BtR) market remains strong in terms of customer demand and investors are again looking to fund development”.

CORPORATE: LSL published AGM statement

They report “market conditions remain challenging as expected in H1, albeit there have been some early signs of improved trading since then and we continue to expect an improvement in H2, supported by the remortgage market and increasing consumer confidence”.

Chart of the Week

Sometimes it can be a challenge to find something interesting to show as the Chart of the Week but this week there have been too many options. I started the week thinking I’d do something on how it appears the Rightmove asking price index is weighted to the top-end of the market (Twitter). Then we had the inflation figures resulting in interest rates shooting up again (investing.com) along with news of mortgage products being withdrawn and repriced. Following that was the latest Regulated Mortgage Survey data from ONS showing falling loan-to-income ratios in Q1 2023 (Twitter) which is exactly what we’d expect to happen given higher mortgage rates. However, it was today’s ONS retail sales that really grabbed my attention and especially the chart showing the divergence in the value and volume of food store sales. We’re paying a lot more for less.

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