DATA: HMRC reported 81,470 residential transactions in May 2025
The latest data was 25% higher than the previous month but 12% lower than the same month last year as the post Stamp Duty holiday lull continued.
DATA: ONS published subnational population projections for England
The 2022-based data includes population projections by local authority and health geographies. They report “Tower Hamlets is projected to be the fastest growing local authority between mid-2022 and mid-2032, with a 20.4% projected population increase (excludes the City of London)” and “Gosport, Copeland and Barrow-in-Furness are the only local authorities projected to decline by more than 1% (excludes the Isles of Scilly)”.
ONS also reported on comparisons between subnational projections and estimates.
DATA: NRS reported on households and dwellings in Scotland, 2024
They report “In 2024 the number of households in Scotland was estimated to be 2.55 million” and “This was 301,100 (13%) higher than in 2004”. They also report “Average household size in Scotland has generally decreased in recent decades. In 2024 it was estimated to be 2.08 people per household compared with 2.27 at the time of the 2001 Census”.
DATA: Scottish Gov published housebuilding statistics for year to Mar 2025
They report “There were 19,288 homes built (completed) and 15,053 new builds started in 2024-25” and “Completions (-746; -4%) and starts (-1,906; -11%) were lower than the previous financial year”.
DATA: Scottish Gov published Landlord Register data for May 2025
The latest release shows the number of registered landlords fell by 3,245 (-1.4%) in the year to May 2025 but the number of registered properties increased by 2,333 (0.7%).
DATA: Homes England published housebuilding stats for 2024/25
They report “Housing programmes delivered by Homes England resulted in 38,308 new houses starting on site and 36,872 new homes completed between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025. This represents an increase in both starts (by 5%) and completions (by 12%) compared to the same period the previous year.”
DATA: Financial Market Expectations For BoE’s Bank Rate
The chart provides a summary for the expected future level of Bank Rate based on daily data. The One Year figure was 3.43% on the 25th Jun compared to 3.54% on the 18th Jun.
DATA: New Build Energy Performance Certificates, England
This chart provides a summary of the number of EPCs on new build properties, a useful leading indicator for net additions. The 52-week rolling total was 208,104 for the week commencing 16th Jun, up slightly from 207,985 the previous week.
POLICY: MHCLG published draft guidance on Awaab’s Law
The draft guidance for social landlords “includes information in relation to damp and mould hazards that will be in scope for the first phase of Awaab’s Law and will be updated to include other hazards ahead of the coming into force of further phases”. MHCLG also published the government’s response to the consultation and final stage Impact Assessment.
POLICY: MHCLG on a “faster, more efficient planning appeals process”
A “Simplified planning appeal procedures will be rolled out to the majority of planning appeals decided via written representations following a Ministerial decision to change regulation” and “Under the new process the majority of written representation appeals will accept only the evidence put before the local planning authority during application”.
POLICY: FCA launched “public conversation” on mortgage market future
The discussion paper “considers areas where changes may be needed to support sustainable home ownership and economic growth, and where introducing more flexibility could allow firms to tailor their product offerings to consumers’ evolving needs”. This includes: “Potential to revise our responsible lending rules to support wider access to sustainable home ownership”, “Ensuring the regulatory framework and the market are prepared for the likely future increase in demand for later life lending”, “Introducing more flexibility to promote consumer understanding, information needs, and innovation”, and “Rebalancing the collective risk appetite in mortgage lending”.
POLICY: Welsh Gov announced plans to speed up planning decisions
The plans including investment into planning services and new fee regulations. It also includes “comprehensive workforce planning research to develop a clear picture of capacity, resource and skills needs across the public planning sector”.
REPORT: UK Stats Authority published Devereux Review into ONS
The review of the performance and culture of the Office for National Statistics recommended that it “needs a focused and consistent effort to improve core statistics”, “change the way ONS is led”, and to “reflect on the appropriate governance of ONS and of the wider statistical system, and if they conclude that legislation needs to change, to do so well before further appointments are needed”.
REPORT: Resolution Foundation reported on Living Standards Outlook
They “project a strong real income recovery in 2024-25, but despite this, overall, there has been a lost half-decade for income growth after 2019-20” and in their “central case, the typical non-pensioner income rises by just 1 per cent between 2024-25 and 2029-30 after accounting for inflation”, resulting in “zero growth over the whole decade”.
REPORT: Resolution Foundation reported on “The power of place”
They report “Place effects account for one‑third of wage gaps. A full‑time worker moving from low‑pay Dudley to high‑pay Harrogate gains about £1,300 a year, roughly 5 per cent, of earnings purely from where they live.” while “People effects explain one‑quarter of the gap. High‑potential workers earn more wherever they go, but the people effect is smaller than the place effect.”. They also report “Sorting amplifies inequality. The tendency of high‑earning‑potential workers to locate in high‑pay areas explains 42 per cent of the variance in wages.” and “Agglomeration effects are modest. Doubling labour‑market size raises pay by just 3.9 per cent, accounting for only 24 per cent of the place premium.”
REPORT: IFS reported on youth mobility and geographical inequalities
They report “High-skilled people move to high-paying cities at the start of their careers” and “One in eight (13%) young workers in the top 5% of GCSE scores are from London” but “By age 32, one in four (26%) of the very highest GCSE achievers live in London”. They also report “mobility between ages 27 and 32 does not undo sorting from earlier periods, and in fact exacerbates geographical inequalities” and “Nearly 40% of the variation in average pay across places is due to mobility patterns in adulthood”.
REPORT(PDF): PIC reported on accelerating housebuilding
The report, based on a survey, suggests that “Accelerating the development of affordable homes is seen as a key priority across the sector” and “greater strategic planning across wider geographic areas and updated guidance on which types of planning application can be determined by council officers were felt to offer the greatest potential”.
REPORT: Public First on the positive impact of international students
They report “International students contribute positively in aggregate to the UK economy – and they raise living standards of domestic UK residents as against the counterfactual of none or fewer international students. Their analysis finds “that international students raise living standards in every constituency in the country”.
REPORT: Onward reported on net migration and private rents
The approach appears too simplistic to draw sensible conclusions.
REPORT: NHSA reported on ageing in the North
The report, by the Northern Health Science Alliance, finds that “People from the South are more likely to retire, while those in the North are more likely to leave the job market due to poor health” and a “range of disadvantages faced by older people living in the North, in areas such as health, life expectancy, housing, nutrition, employment, and social isolation”.
REPORT: UCL on providing affordable homes within environmental limits
The report “outlines the foundational analysis that will guide the next stages of our work, including the framework and metrics we propose to use to evaluate housing policy and practice, and the key areas where we believe change is both necessary and possible” as they seek to “provide affordable homes for all, while protecting and enhancing our environment”.
Chart of the Week
The lag in sales being registered by the Land Registry (“Land Reg Lag”) has been a long-standing issue. I previously wrote about it following the pandemic when the Land Registry was struggling to deal with a combination of home working and a rush in sales. Unfortunately, I was reminded that it continues to be a problem when comparing the Land Registry data (as published in the price paid release) to the figures published by HMRC this week. Over time, the number of sales recorded in the price paid release (ignoring “other” property types) tends to reach around 90% of the HMRC data. The missing 10% is due to differences in definitions in the transactions covered. Now, we’d always expect there to be an undercount in recent months due to the delay but what concerned me most was that the proportion of HMRC sales recorded in the Land Reg data was still only 75% for the whole of 2024. With around 15% of sales still missing from the Land Reg data, that creates issues for the ONS house price index and the analysis I’d hoped to do using this data this week.
