Weekly Summary: 28th April 2023

DATA: Rightmove reported asking prices rose 1.7% in year to 15th April

They report “Sales agreed numbers recover to be in line with the more normal pre-pandemic market of March 2019” with smaller properties leading the recovery.

DATA: ONS reported £16.7 billion in stamp duty receipts during 2022-23

This was a record high for nominal SDLT receipts (both residential and commercial). It was 8.3% higher than the previous financial year though receipts have fallen in recent months.

DATA: HMRC published residential transactions data for March 2023

They reported an estimated 89,560 transactions across the UK, 1.3% higher than last month but 18.9% lower than last year. See Chart of the Week for more detail.

DATA: HMRC published ATED statistics for 2021-22

The release shows Annual Tax on Enveloped Dwellings (ATED) receipts increased 8% to £119 million. This was the first annual rise in receipts since 2015-16.

DATA: DLUHC published energy performance certificate data for Q1 2023

The number of new build EPCs provides a leading indicator for net additional dwellings in England. The release reports 246,752 new build EPCs during the 2022-23 financial year though data for recent weeks suggest a slight slowdown.

DATA(PDF): Rightmove reported asking rents rose 9.4% in year to Q1 2023

They report average asking rents outside London have reached a new record of £1,190 per month and “the number of available properties to rent is still 46% below 2019’s level”.

DATA: Scottish Government published Scottish Household Survey 2021

The telephone survey has some issues given the challenges of the pandemic but provides a wealth of information on housing and other topics.

POLICY: DLUHC published consultation outcome on CPO reforms

“The consultation sought evidence and examples of how paying closer to existing use value for land could be in the public interest”.

REPORT: Resolution Foundation published “Hoping and coping”

The research on how families have been affected by the cost of living crisis found “three-quarters (75 per cent) of adults reported cutting back on the amount they consume and almost half (44 per cent) of adults used their savings to make ends meet”. It also found “The younger middle-aged (aged 35-44) were the most likely to turn to formal lending – such as credit cards, overdrafts or other formal loans – to make ends meet over the winter”.

REPORT(PDF): Create Streets Foundation reported on “The Case for Place”

The report “explore[s] how and why England has such entrenched patterns of economic imbalance” with a focus on the North East of England.

REPORT: CaCHE reported on adopting domestic heat pumps in the UK

The report reviews the factors than encourage or hinder the adoption of heat pumps in the UK’s housing market.

REPORT: Knight Frank reported on their student housing survey

They report “Students are satisfied with their accommodation, particularly those in purpose-built schemes” and “Cost and value top of the agenda”.

CORPORATE: Persimmon published Q1 trading statement

They report the net private sales per outlet was 0.62 in Q1 2023, down from 0.98 in Q1 last year. The figure was 0.58 if bulk sales were excluded.

CORPORATE: Taylor Wimpey published trading update

They report “Our net private sales rate for the year to 23 April 2023 was 0.75 (2022: 0.97), with a cancellation rate of 15% (2022: 14%)”. Excluding bulk sales, the rate was 0.66.

Chart of the Week

Mortgage approvals for house purchase might be around one-third lower than pre-pandemic levels according to the Bank of England but total residential transactions have not seen anywhere near the same scale of falls. The seasonally adjusted data for the UK shows they were just 9.8% lower than the pre-pandemic average in March. However, there are issues with the HMRC monthly estimates due to delays in data and we’ve seen some significant revisions in the past. To provide more detail, we have just considered the non seasonally adjusted data for England in the chart below. It shows recent transaction levels have been consistently below last year’s figures but well within the typical range prior to the pandemic. The difference between mortgage approvals and transactions suggests cash buyers and investors have been very active in the market though we will have to wait to see if that is the case or if there’s some other explanation for these robust transaction levels.

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