DATA: Rightmove reported asking prices rose 1.0% in year to Mar 2025
They report(PDF) a “Massive log-jam of 575,000 moves in the legal completion process, with many trying to beat March’s stamp duty deadline” while “The number of sales being agreed is 9% higher than at this time in 2024, a positive sign for the market post-stamp-duty increase, and the number of new sellers is now 8% ahead of this time last year”.
DATA: ONS/HMLR reported UK house prices rose 4.9% in year to Jan 2025
They report the annual price change ranged from 2.3% in London to 9.1% in the North East.
DATA(PDF): Zoopla reported UK house prices rose 1.8% in year to Feb 2025
They report a “North-south divide in supply and demand” because “Supply has increased the most in southern England, as a return to price increases and rising sales has encouraged more sellers to put their homes on the market” but rising buyer demand has failed to keep pace, resulting in lower price growth. Meanwhile, buyer demand is stronger across the rest of the UK and supply has increased at a slower rate.
DATA: ONS published house price to earnings ratios for 2024
The data, covering England and Wales, shows “Affordability in England and Wales in 2024 has returned to its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic levels after a sharp increase between 2020 and 2021”.
DATA: ONS reported CPI rose 2.8% in year to Feb 2025
This was lower than the 3.0% reported for the previous month with a large downward contribution from clothing and footwear.
DATA: ONS reported UK private rents rose 8.1% in year to Feb 2025
They report “In England, private rents annual inflation was highest in London (9.9%) and lowest in Yorkshire and The Humber (4.8%), in the 12 months to February 2025”. It should be noted that leading indicators for rents are showing more subdued rises than the ONS.
DATA: HMRC reported 108,250 transactions in Feb 2025
The seasonally adjusted figure was 13% higher than the previous month and 28% higher than the same month last year, clearly marking the start of the Stamp Duty holiday rush.
DATA: HMRC published Annual Tax on Enveloped Dwellings statistics
They report “total ATED receipts in the 2023 to 2024 financial year were £132 million, increasing by 6% (£8 million) compared to the previous year” and “The number of liable ATED declarations remained steady at 5,170 in the 2023 to 2024 financial year, compared to 5,160 in the previous year”.
DATA: ONS published first-time buyer numbers by local authority
The release, based on FCA data, reports “Several London boroughs saw some of the largest falls in the rate of first-time buyer mortgage sales in the UK between 2013 and 2023”. They also report “Similar trends can be seen in other major cities across the UK, with rates of first-time buyer mortgage sales falling or growing more slowly than surrounding areas”.
DATA: MHCLG published English planning applications for Q4 2024
They report planning authorities “granted 7,400 residential applications, down 10% from the same quarter a year earlier” and Glenigan data showed “permission for 241,000 homes was given in the year to December 2024”.
DATA: Scottish Gov published planning applications for Q3 2024
They report “The number of decisions on major developments in the first two quarters of 2024/25 was 93 compared to 57 in the same period in the previous year”.
DATA: MHCLG published Building Control housebuilding data for Q4 2024
The number of starts in England was 52% higher than the same quarter last year while the number of completions was 9% lower. These figures undercount delivery and MHCLG have published an estimate of net additions since the election based on EPCs and demolitions. They estimate 142,800 net new homes between the 9th of July and 23rd of March.
DATA: Scottish Gov published housebuilding data for Q4 2024
They report “In the 12 months ending December 2024, there were 19,797 homes built and 15,050 new builds started” while “All sector completions (-7%) and starts (-9%) were lower than the previous 12 months”.
DATA: DWP published Family Resources Survey for 2023/24
The publication contains a wealth of data on income and tenure amongst other topics.
DATA: Financial Market Expectations For BoE’s Bank Rate
The chart provides a summary for the expected future level of Bank Rate based on daily data. The One Year figure was 3.97% on the 26th Mar compared to 3.93% on the 19th Mar.
DATA: New Build Energy Performance Certificates, England
This chart provides a summary of the number of EPCs on new build properties, a useful leading indicator for net additions. The 52-week rolling total was 209,101 for the week commencing 17th Mar, down from 209,281 the previous week.
POLICY: BoE MPC voted 8-1 to maintain Bank Rate at 4.5%
POLICY: Chancellor presented Spring Statement 2025
The pre-speech announcements included £2bn for the Affordable Homes Programme to act as a bridge in 2026/27 ahead of further funding to be announced at the Spending Review, and £600m investment to train 60,000 more construction workers. It was also pre-announced that the introduction of the Building Safety Levy will be delayed till the 1st of October 2026.
POLICY: MHCLG announced £20m to support community-led housing
The package for community land trusts and housing co-operatives is expected to support the construction of 2,500 homes.
POLICY: HM Treasury announced taskforce to unlock surplus public land
They suggest “Unused land will be identified, developed and released by a cross-government collaboration”. Apparently the “Defence Secretary has identified the long-term opportunity to build over 100,000 homes on surplus defence land” and “a new property company created between Network Rail property and London & Continental Railways, which will attract public and private investment to develop brownfield sites”.
REPORT: OBR published Economic and fiscal outlook
They forecast “real GDP growth of 1.0 per cent this year, half the rate in our October forecast, before it recovers to average around 1¾ per cent over the rest of the decade”. See Chart of the Week for more on their planning reform and net additions forecast.
REPORT: CIH published UK Housing Review 2025
The executive summary and commentary chapters, covering “trends in UK housing markets and in meeting housing needs, housing provision and public expenditure on housing, the government’s current investment plans, homelessness and social security benefits” are freely available while the full report is available for purchase.
REPORT: CaCHE reported on Scottish private rented sector landlords
The report “summarises the findings of key Scottish private landlord surveys that have emerged sporadically over the last 30 years” and finds that the sector “has become increasingly cottage -like, meaning that it has become dominated by a large number of small-scale, part-time, investor landlords”. It recommends introducing a periodic survey.
REPORT: Registers of Scotland published Country of origin report
The report “shows where land and property owners and tenants were based at the time of purchase, including locations within Scotland, the rest of the UK, and beyond”. It reports the location of owner addresses was: “92.8% Scotland; 5.5% UK outwith Scotland; 1.4% outwith UK; 0.2% Government and Crown”.
REPORT: JRF reported on living standards
They report the “living standards are set to fall across the rest of the decade, with the average family £750 worse off in real terms by April 2029 compared to now” with “Families on the lowest incomes are forecast to see their incomes fall around twice as fast as middle and higher income families”.
REPORT: BoE published Agents summary of business conditions, Q1 2025
They report “Estate agents and home builders report a subdued sales market, where potential buyers are uncertain about the economic environment” and “The increase in stamp duty from April has not had a significant effect on the timing of transactions in England and Northern Ireland”.
REPORT: HBF reported on training in the home building industry
They suggest “To deliver on the Government’s housing targets, home building needs to increase by 80,000 units a year” and set out their recommendations for supporting the training, recruitment, and retention of the home building workforce.
REPORT: UK Finance published Plan for Growth
They have a long list including asking the FPC to “ease its existing loan-to-income (LTI) flow limit for new residential mortgages at LTI ratios at or above 4.5 income”.
REPORT: Understanding Society on children in overcrowded households
They report “a relatively flat trend in children living in overcrowded households” and “Overcrowding is significantly associate with poor child mental wellbeing”.
REPORT: NLA published London Tall Buildings Survey 2025
They report “The number of applications including tall buildings has increased from last year, but permissions have decreased significantly”.
CORPORATE: Harworth published Full Year Results
They report “Record Residential plot sales of 2,385 at headline sales value of £104.1m” and “Planning approvals secured for 818 Residential plots, growing total consented plots to 4,568 plots (2023: 5,296 plots)”.
CORPORATE: Crest Nicholson published Trading Update
They report “In the 10 week period to 14 March, the open market sales rate (excluding bulk) was 0.61 (FY24 0.50)”.
CORPORATE: Henry Boot published Results
They report “During the year consents were secured on 2,982 plots (2023: 1,104) increasing the total plots with planning permission to 8,822 (2023: 8,501), all held at cost. A further 13,146 plots await planning determination (2023: 13,468)”. They also intend to “materially increase new applications to c.10,000 plots over the next 12 months (2024: 2,660 plots)” in response to the NPPF changes.
CORPORATE: Bellway published Interim Result
For their first half, they report “Growth in total housing completions of 11.9% to 4,577 homes (2024 – 4,092) at an average selling price of £310,581 (2024 – £309,278)” and “The private reservation rate per outlet per week increased by 18.6% to 0.51 (2024 – 0.43), including a contribution from bulk sales of 0.06 (2024 – 0.03)”.
CORPORATE: Vistry published Full year results
They report “Total completions increased by 7% to 17,225 units (FY23: 16,118 units) with Partner Funded completions up by 18% to 12,633 units (FY23: 10,722 units) and Open Market completions down by 15% to 4,592 units (FY23: 5,396 units” and “The Group sales rate of 0.59 (2024: 0.81) sales per site per week for the year to date is down on prior year reflecting a low volume of Partner Funded transactions in the first quarter”.
Chart of the Week
The Chancellor made much of the OBR’s forecast for net housing supply in her Spring Statement speech, including the rather naughty comparison of the OBR’s 1.3m forecast for the UK with the 1.5m target for England – suggesting it meant their target was “within touching distance”. However, if we make some estimates for the what the OBR’s UK forecast actually means for England, including a larger share of delivery in England, then we get a figure of around 1 to 1.1million homes delivered – well outside “touching distance” of their target. Looking closer at the OBR forecast and it shows delivery falling further in 2025/26 before accelerating in 2026/27 and 2027/28. I suspect these figures are too pessimistic in the short-term and optimistic in the latter part of the forecast period but we’ll have to wait and see.
