DATA: ONS published long-term international migration stats for Jun 2025
They report “At 204,000, long-term international net migration for the year ending (YE) June 2025 was around two-thirds lower than a year earlier (649,000 in YE June 2024)”.
DATA: ONS published UK population estimate for mid 2025
They estimate “the population of the UK on 30 June 2025 is 69.5 million people” thanks to “Estimated long-term net migration was 204,000, while there were an estimated 653,000 births and 651,000 deaths in the year ending 30 June 2025”. This is a 0.3% increase on last year’s population estimate.
DATA: Zoopla reported UK house prices rose 1.3% in year to Oct 2025
They report “House prices across southern England have begun to edge down for the first time in 18 months” and “The number of homes for sale in southern regions is now 8 to 15% higher than a year ago”. They also report “The seasonal slowdown has arrived a little earlier this year, with buyer demand sitting 12% below last autumn” but “Sales agreed are only 4% lower than a year ago”.
DATA: HMRC reported 98,450 residential transactions in Oct 2025
The seasonally adjusted figure for the UK was 1.8% higher than the previous month and just 1% below the pre-pandemic average.
DATA: Scottish Gov published Private Sector Rent Statistics
They report the average change in rent in the year to September 2025 by number of bedrooms was +5.5% for shared one beds, +4.0% for one beds, +3.1% for two beds, +1.6% for three beds, and -1.5% for four bed properties.
DATA: Scottish Gov published Landlord Register data for Oct 2025
The latest data shows the number of registered landlords fell by 2.1% in the year to October 2025 while the number of registered properties fell by 0.2%.
DATA: UK Finance published later life lending data for Q3 2025
They report “There were 39,950 new loans advanced to older borrowers in Q3, up 18.4 per cent year on year” and “The value of this lending was £6.5bn, which was up 24.7 per cent compared with the same quarter a year previously”.
DATA: MHCLG published statutory homelessness statistics for 2024/25
The report for England “provides a narrative of the high-level picture of statutory homelessness in England and includes information on statutory homelessness assessments, and activities under different duties to combat homelessness, and use of temporary accommodation”.
DATA: ONS published short-term lets data for year to Jun 2025
They report “From July 2024 to June 2025, there were 93,823,780 guest nights spent in short-term lets in the UK” and “There was a 10.2% increase in the number of guest nights from the previous 12-month period”.
DATA: Financial Market Expectations For BoE’s Bank Rate
The chart provides a summary for the expected future level of Bank Rate based on daily data. The One Year figure was 3.35% on the 26th Nov compared to 3.42% on the 19th Nov.
DATA: New Build Energy Performance Certificates, England
This chart provides a summary of the number of EPCs on new build properties, a useful leading indicator for net additions. The 52-week rolling total was 208,217 for the week commencing 17th Nov, slightly lower than the 208,881 total for the previous week.
POLICY: Chancellor delivered Autumn Budget 2025
The widely leaked High Value Council Tax Surcharge was introduced: “From April 2028, owners of properties identified as being valued at over £2 million will be liable for a recurring annual charge which will be additional to existing Council Tax liability. This measure is estimated to raise £0.4 billion in 2029-30”.
They are also “Creating separate tax rates for property income. From April 2027, the property basic rate will be 22%, the property higher rate will be 42%, and the property additional rate will be 47%.”
They are scrapping plans to transition the Landfill Tax to a single rate by 2030.
The announced “£48 million of additional funding to boost capacity in the planning system” which “includes additional investment to recruit an extra 350 planners in England by expanding the Pathways to Planning Graduate Scheme and creating a new Planning Careers Hub”.
They will “shortly consult on the reform of VAT rules to incentivise the development of land intended for social housing”.
They will “publish a consultation in early 2026 on the implementation of a new, simpler ISA product to support first time buyers to buy a home. Once available, this new product will be offered in place of the Lifetime ISA.”
POLICY: MHCLG/GLA shared commitment to Thamesmead and Beckton
Following the announcement of the DLR extension to Thamesmead, MHCLG and Mayor of London “committed to bringing forward ambitious plans for housing delivery, making sure the unique opportunity at Thamesmead Waterfront and Beckton Riverside”.
REPORT: OBR published (early) their Economic and fiscal outlook report
They predict “Real GDP is forecast to grow by 1.5 per cent on average over the forecast, 0.3 percentage points slower than we projected in March, due to lower underlying productivity growth” and “Greater domestically generated inflation, alongside higher food prices, mean we also expect inflation to stay higher for longer than in March”. See Chart of the Week for more on their housing market forecasts.
REPORT: IFS reported on the Autumn Budget 2025
REPORT: Resolution Foundation reported on the Autumn Budget 2025
REPORT: MHCLG reported on public attitudes to housing
Based on the 2021 and 2023 British Social Attitudes survey, they report “Around 2 in 5 (40%) of respondents supported more homes being built in their local area, an increase compared to 2021 (33%), but still significantly lower than in 2018 (57%)”. They also report “The proportion of respondents who reported they were likely to consider buying a new build home remained stable between 2023 (29%) and 2021 (29%) but has decreased when compared to 2018 (39%)”.
REPORT: National Audit Office published MHCLG departmental overview
The overview “summarise the key information and insights from our examinations of departments and from their annual report and accounts, and explore departments’ progress against these crucial outcomes, highlighting positive examples and opportunities to improve”.
REPORT: CSJ published Skills to Build report
They report on the need to recruit more people into the construction industry: “Building 1.5 million new homes alone, a manifesto commitment, will require an additional 161,000 workers – rising to over 239,000 once factoring in wider projected demand by 2030. Some forecasters put the true figure at one million.”
Charts of the Week
OBR published their Economic and fiscal outlook on Wednesday (temporarily available before the budget if you changed the month in the link to the previous report). The OBR housing market forecasts are always an intriguing prospect. This time we’re starting with their forecast for Bank Rate and the average outstanding mortgage rate, as per the chart below. They are expecting Bank Rate to fall to 3.6% next year but then rise to 4.1% by the end of the forecast period. On mortgages, the actual data from the Bank of England shows the average rate on new advances has been falling over the last couple of years and the rise in the average outstanding rate as slowed as a result – current at 3.9%. However, the OBR predicts the average outstanding rate will continue to rise, hitting 4.8% in Q4 2027. This suggests a further painful rise in mortgage rates on new advances in coming years (hmm!). Keep reading for more on transactions.
OBR forecasts for transactions tend to be on the optimistic side over the medium term. As the chart below shows, they tend to rise to consistently higher levels than those recorded since the financial crisis outside of stamp duty holidays or the post-pandemic surge. Their latest transaction forecasts will be tough to hit despite the downgrade from March. On net additions, they are forecasting 1.26m for the five years from April 2025. However, this figure is for the UK and accounting for this suggests around 1-1.1m during this parliament. Even this forecast will also be difficult as it relies on a very rapid recovery from 2027.
