DATA: Zoopla reported house prices rose 1.4% in year to Oct 2024
They also report “UK house prices are projected to rise by 2.5% in 2025, with a 5% increase in the volume of housing transactions, predicted at 1.15m”.
DATA: BoE reported 68,303 mortgage approvals for purchase in Oct 2024
They report mortgage approvals for purchase rose 3.3% compared to the previous month and were 3% above their pre-pandemic average. Approvals for remortgaging were 35% higher than the same month last year.
DATA: HMRC reported a sharp rise in transactions in Oct 2024
They estimate there were 100,410 residential transactions in October, 10% higher than last month and the first time the data has been above (+1%) its pre-pandemic average since December 2022. This appears to reflect a rush to complete prior to the budget.
DATA: BoE reported a fall in mortgage rates on new advances in Oct 2024
They report the average rate on new advances (both purchase and remortgage) fell from 4.78% in September to 4.62% in October. However, the average rate on outstanding balances increased slightly to 3.79% (previously 3.75%).
DATA: MHCLG published Net Additional Dwellings for England 2023/24
See Chart of the Week for more detail.
DATA: ONS published long-term international migration estimates
Their latest release increased the estimate for net international migration for the year ending June 2023 to 906,000 people (+166,000) and an initial estimate for the year ending June 2024 of 728,000).
DATA: UKF published Later Life Mortgage Lending update for Q3 2024
They report “There were 5,830 new lifetime mortgages advanced in Q3, down 18.8 per cent year on year”.
DATA: MHCLG published Statutory homelessness in England for Q2 2024
They report “Authorities reported on initial assessments for 90,990 households, up 10.3% from April to June 2023” and “45,980 households were initially assessed as homeless and therefore owed a relief duty, up 13.8% from the same quarter last year”.
DATA: Scottish Gov published Private Sector Rent Statistics, 2010 to 2024
The release “presents statistics on average private sector rent levels in Scotland by Broad Rental Market Area and size of property, for the years 2010 to 2024”.
DATA: HMT published Mortgage Guarantee and Help to Buy ISA statistics
The Mortgage Guarantee release shows “There were 45,775 mortgage completions from scheme launch on 19 April 2021 to the end of June 2024” which is 1.4% of all mortgage completions. The Help to Buy ISA release shows “There were 795,759 bonuses paid through the scheme to the end of June 2024, which supported 612,426 property completions”.
DATA: RSH published Tenant Satisfaction Measures
They report “Almost one in five tenants surveyed (19%) are dissatisfied with the overall service from their landlord. The views of many of these tenants are likely to be reflected in the low average (landlord median) satisfaction with landlord complaint handling (35%)”.
DATA: Financial Market Expectations For BoE’s Bank Rate
The chart provides a summary for the expected future level of Bank Rate based on daily data. The One Year figure was 4.0% on 28th November compared to 4.06% on the 21st.
DATA: New Build Energy Performance Certificates, England
This chart provides a summary of the number of EPCs on new build properties, a useful leading indicator for net additions. The 52-week rolling total was 217,415 for the week commencing 18th November, up slightly from 217,323 the previous week.
REPORT: MHCLG published English Housing Survey report for 2023/24
The first publication of the 2023/24 series covers demographics and household resilience. It contains lots of analysis, with findings including “In 2023, there were 1.2 million vacant dwellings, making up 5% of dwellings in England” and “Across all tenures, the proportion of households with savings remained higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic”.
REPORT: BoE published Financial Stability Report
They report “the outlook for mortgage borrower resilience has improved in line with the domestic economic outlook” and “While around half of mortgagors are likely to experience greater borrowing costs over the next three years as they refinance onto higher rates, around a quarter of borrowers are expected to benefit from lower rates, based on market pricing”. They also report “The FPC continues to judge that the LTI flow limit has not significantly reduced mortgage access for first-time buyers” and “The aggregate share of lending at high LTI ratios has picked up to 7% in 2024 Q3”.
REPORT: The Older People’s Housing Taskforce published a report
They report “We need an estimated 30-50,000 new later living homes per annum to meet this growth – but only build around 7,000 a year” and “New research by the Taskforce shows current private leasehold OPH options are unaffordable for the majority of English households aged 75 years and over”.
REPORT: MHCLG published research on Volumetric Modular Construction
They report “Comprehensive pre-project planning is essential to volumetric construction” and “The primary risk at the outset is lack of clear ownership and accountability”.
REPORT: Resolution Foundation reported on wealth inequality
They report “unlike elsewhere, relative wealth inequality in Britain did not soar during the era of rapidly rising wealth” and find “the headline of stable wealth inequality hides offsetting changes in inequalities between and within age groups”.
REPORT: IPPR reported on what to do about wealth inequality
They suggest “shifting the overwhelming reliance of tax revenue from income towards wealth”, “strengthening the social safety nets” for low wealth households, and “Differentiating between ‘good wealth’ and ‘bad wealth’”.
REPORT: NHC published Northern Housing Monitor 2024
Their keynote chapter focusses on housing poverty and found that “3.6 million people in the North – 23% of the Northern population, and 32% of children – are pushed into poverty after paying their housing costs”.
REPORT(PDF): IMLA reported on the vital role of the private rented sector
They examine the proposed changes to the private rented sector and suggest “these follow the pattern of the interventions of the past two decades and are likely to increase costs and risks for landlords”. They also suggest “If our analysis is correct, the inevitable result will be even lower supply and higher rents for tenants”.
REPORT: Rettie reported on Build to Rent in Scotland
They report “While a number of schemes have achieved practical completion over the last 12 months, 2024 to date has seen the fewest number of new units entering the pipeline since 2015” and “the additional political risk in Scotland has seen its main cities fall well behind BTR delivery in cities like Manchester and Liverpool”.
REPORT: ASI reported on lessons from Fantasy Football for planning
They suggest “A simple online interface could identify all those sites that planning officers consider suitable for development, not just their favoured ones” and “Local residents could then be asked to choose their preferred combination of sites to meet the necessary housing target”.
Chart of the Week
This week MHCLG published the net additional dwelling data for 2023-24. We already have a good idea what the results were going to be thanks to leading indicators but the fall compared to the previous year in net additions to 221,071 (-5.6%) and new build completions to 198,612 (-6.5%) highlights the challenge facing the government and its target for 1.5 million. Especially in London and the South East where supply has fallen most.
