DATA: ONS estimated monthly GDP rose 0.7% in year to Jun 2024
They report “Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.6% in the three months to June 2024, compared with the three months to March 2024 with widespread growth in the services sector driving growth in this period”. This left GDP 2.7% above the Jan 2020 peak.
DATA: ONS reported on the UK labour market
Their annual growth rate comparisons data “suggests a more subdued picture, with the number of employed people lower than a year ago while growth in payrolled employees has slowed over the year”. They also report “There has been a slight slowing in the annual growth in regular earnings in the three months to June 2024 to 5.4%”.
DATA: ONS reported CPI rose 2.2% in year to Jul 2024
This was slightly higher than the 2.0% reported the previous month.
DATA: Rightmove reported asking prices rose 0.8% in the year to Aug 2024
They report(PDF) “The number of potential buyers contacting estate agents about homes for sale has jumped from 11% up on the prior year across the month of July, to 19% up since the 1st of August compared to the same time a year ago”. They also report “The number of sales being agreed is now 16% ahead of the near-peak-mortgage-rate period of a year ago” and “The number of new sellers coming to market is 5% ahead of last year as confidence to move grows”.
DATA: Nationwide reported UK house prices rose 2.4% in year to Aug 2024
They report the “Fastest pace of annual growth since December 2022” despite a 0.2% seasonally adjusted fall in prices compared to the previous month.
DATA(PDF): Zoopla reported UK house prices rose 0.5% in year to Jul 2024
They report, despite an increase in buyer demand, that “More new supply means the stock of homes for sale continues to increase and now stands at a 7-year high of 33 homes per agent”. They also report “1 in 5 homes has had their asking price cut by 5% or more, an above average level showing continued price sensitivity amongst buyers”.
DATA: ONS/HMLR reported UK house prices rose 2.7% in year to Jun 2024
They report annual price rises were highest in Northern Ireland (6.4%) and lowest in London (0.6%). This data is subject to significant revisions due to the Land Reg Lag.
DATA: ONS reported UK private rents rose 8.6% in year to Jul 2024
This was unchanged on the previous month.
DATA: BoE published mortgage approval data for Jul 2024
The latest release shows there were 62,000 approvals for house purchase, 26.5% higher than the same month last year and just 6% below the pre-pandemic average.
DATA: HMRC reported 91,370 residential transaction in Jun 2024
The latest estimate shows the number of transactions was 8% higher than the same month last year but still 8% below the pre-pandemic average.
DATA: BoE published effective mortgage rate data for Jun 2024
The latest release shows the average rate on new advances (both purchase and remortgage) was 4.84%, unchanged from the previous month. The average rate on outstanding balances was 3.70%, slightly higher than the 3.66% the previous month.
DATA: ONS published Family spending in the UK, 2022/23
The release provides “Average weekly household expenditure on goods and services in the UK, by age, income, economic status, socio-economic class, household composition and region” and is an important input into mortgage lenders’ affordability models. They report “After accounting for inflation, household spending remains below FYE 2020 pre-coronavirus levels”.
DATA: UK Finance published Later Life Mortgage Lending update
They report “There were 32,990 new loans advanced to older borrowers in Q2, down 8.34 per cent year on year” while the value of lending was down 17.5% over the same period.
DATA: HMRC published Property rental income statistics
They report “the total number of unincorporated landlords that declared income from renting property in 2022 to 2023 was 2.84 million”. This was 20,000 lower than the previous year but 30,000 higher than 2020/21.
DATA: HM Treasury published Mortgage Guarantee Scheme statistics
The latest release reports “There were 44,368 mortgage completions from scheme launch on 19 April 2021 to the end of March 2024, which represents 1.5% of all residential mortgage completions in the UK”.
DATA: HM Treasury published Help to Buy ISA statistics
The latest release reports “There were 782,299 bonuses paid through the scheme to the end of March 2024, which supported 601,476 property completions”.
POLICY: MHCLG launched the New Homes Accelerator programme
They programme “aims to unblock and accelerate the delivery of housing developments that have for various reasons become delayed, or which are not progressing as quickly as they could be” with MHCLG analysis suggesting “there may be more than 200 sites with outline or detailed planning permission where work on site has delayed”. Site submissions can be made through an online form.
REPORT: IPPR reported on wealth taxation and regional divides
They report “Spatial inequality is a systemic feature in the UK because of the lighter tax treatment afforded to wealth compared to work” and suggest “Taxing different types of income equally”, “Reforming property tax”, and “Reforming the transfer of wealth”.
REPORT: UK Onward reported on a fairer property tax
The report proposes replacing council tax and stamp duty with a proportional tax with a “split in revenues between local and national government, meaning that all of the tax up to a certain value accrues to local government, and all of the tax on the value of the house above that accrues to national government”.
REPORT: Institute For Government reported on building more homes
The report “examines the history of why successive governments have found it difficult to deliver on housebuilding pledges” and “identifies the persistent barriers to progress, and sets out 10 principles that Starmer’s government, and future ones, should adopt to underpin a better approach to navigating them”.
REPORT: Resolution Foundation published Living Standards Outlook 2024
They “project strong income growth of 3 per cent in 2024-25, aided by pre-election tax cuts, but weak income growth for the rest of the Parliament based on current economic forecasts and policy assumptions”.
REPORT: Policy Exchange reported on “Systematic Beauty Polling”
They suggest mandatory polling to “gauge public opinion on large, completed building projects”. They suggest this would provide a “clear reference point for the kind of new buildings that local communities would support being built”.
REPORT: TCPA published a vision for healthy new towns
The report “outlines the kind of vision for healthy places that will be vital to securing high quality outcomes in new towns. It then touches on some of the key lessons from the past New Towns programme and some headline preconditions for future success”.
REPORT: Bank Underground reported on UK households’ resilience
They “construct some new summary measures of borrower resilience” and “show that increases in debt-servicing costs or in the flow of credit to households could make households less resilient overall”.
REPORT: IEA reported on rent controls
They report “the majority of studies suggest rent controls leads to lower rents in controlled housing and higher homeownership” but “rent control has numerous negative effects”.
REPORT: Savills reported on new housing supply in England
They report “Housing supply stagnant at 230k homes per year as Government contemplates major planning changes” but “Residential development continues to slow down”.
REPORT: JLL published “Big Six Residential Development Report”
The report on the big cities outside London finds “In the sales market, higher rates, both interest and mortgage, have continued to put pressure on both development viability and buyers’ budgets” while “The rental market across the Big Six cities has remained robust, albeit growth has cooled significantly from double digit highs in H1 2023”.
REPORT: Knight Frank reported on the London new homes market
They report “Overall, the total number of offers made on new build homes in the capital fell around 50% in both June and July this year compared to a year earlier, while viewings eased by just over 10%”.
CORPORATE: Empiric Student Property published Interim Results
They report “Like-for-like growth in average weekly rents to exceed 6% for academic year 2024/25” and the “Re-booker rate set to exceed the 22% achieved in the prior year”.
CORPORATE: Watkin Jones published Trading Update
They report “overall market activity through the summer has been slower than anticipated, principally due to the continued uncertainty over the pace of interest rate cuts, and as such we believe it is now unlikely that we will close any further transactions before the financial year end”.
Chart of the Week
Today the Bank of England published data on the distribution of fixed rate periods and floating rates on new mortgage lending for Q2 2024. It shows a decline in the proportion of lending on floating rates to 6.2% from a peak of 17.7% in Q1 2023 and back to the level seen prior to the rise in interest rates. Meanwhile, the share of lending fixed for two years or less has continued to rise, accounting for 56.2% of lending, a level not seen since 2017.
