DATA: Nationwide reported UK house prices rose 2.1% in year to Jun 2025
They report a seasonally adjusted 0.8% fall on the previous month, with the annual rate slowing to 2.1% compared to 3.5% the previous month. They also report “Northern Ireland remained the strongest performer by a wide margin, though it did see a slowing in annual price growth to 9.7%, from 13.5% in Q1” and “East Anglia was the weakest performer with annual growth of 1.1%”. See Chart of the Week for more on the Nationwide index.
DATA(PDF): Zoopla reported house prices rose 1.4% in year to May 2025
They report “Sales activity continues to run at the fastest rate for 4 years, with more homes for sale meaning more buyers in the market” but “UK house price inflation slows to 1.4% as 14% more homes for sale boosts buyer choice and limits price growth”. They also report a “Clear link between growth in supply and levels of price inflation” across regions.
DATA: BoE reported 63,032 mortgage approvals for purchase in May 2025
They report the number of mortgage approvals for house purchase increased by 3.9% compared to the previous month and was 3.3% above the same month last year. This was the first monthly increase since December 2024. The number of approvals for remortgage was 42% above last year’s levels.
DATA: BoE published effective mortgage rate data for May 2025
They report the average rate on new advances (both purchase and remortgage) was 4.48%, down slightly from the 4.50% reported the previous month. The average rate on outstanding balances was unchanged at 3.87%.
DATA: BoE published Credit Conditions Survey for Q2 2025.
They report “the availability of secured credit to households increased in the three months to end-May 2025 (Q2) and was expected to increase over the next three months to end-August 2025 (Q3) (Chart 1)”, and “Lenders reported that demand for secured lending for house purchase increased in Q2, and was expected to decrease in Q3”.
DATA: Financial Market Expectations For BoE’s Bank Rate
The chart provides a summary for the expected future level of Bank Rate based on daily data. The One Year figure was 3.48% on the 2nd Jul compared to 3.43% on the 25th Jun.
DATA: New Build Energy Performance Certificates, England
This chart provides a summary of the number of EPCs on new build properties, a useful leading indicator for net additions. The 52-week rolling total was 207,716 for the week commencing 23rd Jun, down slightly from 208,104 the previous week.
POLICY: MHCLG published policy paper on social and affordable housing
The paper “sets in place the foundations for a decade of renewal in social and affordable housing” with a five step plan: “Deliver the biggest boost to grant funding in a generation”, “Rebuild the sector’s capacity to borrow and invest in new and existing homes”, “Establish an effective and stable regulatory regime”, “Reinvigorate council housebuilding”, and “Forge a renewed partnership with the sector to build at scale”.
The ambition for the government’s £39 billion Social and Affordable Homes Programme is for 300,000 homes over ten years, with at least 60% for social rent.
MHCLG also launched a new Council Housebuilding Skills and Capacity Programme, a consultation on a reformed Decent Homes Standard, a consultation on Social Rent convergence, and a consultation on improving the energy efficiency of social rented homes.
POLICY: MHCLG announced reforms to the Building Safety Regulator
They include “a new Fast Track Process, changes to leadership and fresh investment”.
POLICY: Welsh Gov consultation on a new rent and service charge standard
They are seeking “views on the development of a refreshed social rent policy”.
REPORT: Welsh Gov seminar on homelessness
They published presentations from the latest Welsh Gov Housing Information Group seminar on homelessness.
REPORT: MHCLG published briefing on a revised Decent Homes Standard
The briefing looks at “how the condition of the current stock of rental properties compares to the updated and extended Decent Homes Standard that the government is consulting on, and the potential cost of bringing homes up to the revised standard”. It finds “The additional compliance costs associated with moving to a new, higher standard are estimated in 2019 prices at £836 million for the SRS and £2.4 billion in the PRS”.
REPORT: HBF published 2025 Government progress report
They report “the Government’s efforts over the past year have laid some important groundwork for increased housing delivery, particularly in reforms to planning policy” but “Significant barriers remain that must be urgently addressed if the target of 1.5 million new homes is to be met. Chief among these are the growing backlog of uncontracted Section 106 units, the absence of targeted support for first-time buyers, and persistent delays within the planning process. Furthermore, some policy choices made since the General Election, such as build-out transparency proposals and the decision to press ahead with the Building Safety Levy, will undermine progress”.
REPORT: Housing Forum reviews their roadmap to 1.5m new homes
The review, one year on, finds “The Government has done a great deal of work in this first year and has put many of the building blocks in place to enable new housing to be delivered” but “The scale of the challenge in building 1.5 million new homes over a five-year period remains immense”.
REPORT: Centre for Cities report on planning committee reforms
The report “sets out why planning committees should not be able to block development on sites allocated in local plans”.
REPORT(PDF): IMLA reported on the mortgage affordability paradox
The update of their 2021 report finds “a remarkably resilient housing and mortgage market” where “House prices have remained at broadly the same level while mortgage lending has recovered from an initial dip”. They also suggest we have “returned to an economic environment more like the early 2000s, when both earnings growth and mortgage rates were higher than we have been used to over the past decade and a half”.
REPORT(PDF): BPF, L&G, and Savills report on Beyond Buy to Let
The report “summarises the changes taking place in PRS and highlights the importance of encouraging investment into the sector to meet Government housebuilding targets and help replace stock that is being sold by small individual landlords”.
REPORT: CPS reported on the housebuilding shortfall
They suggest “lacklustre housebuilding and recent record migration have left the UK with a shortfall of more than 6.5 million homes”.
REPORT: Propertymark published housing insight report for May 2025
They report “A mixed performance across the UK housing market in May”.
CORPORATE: MJ Gleeson published Trading Update
They report Gleeson Homes “completed the sale of 1,793 homes (FY2024: 1,772 homes) of which 205 were sold via multi-unit sales (FY2024: 346)” and “Net reservation rates over the last six months averaged 0.88 per site per week (H2 FY2024: 0.63). Excluding multi-unit agreements, net reservation rates improved significantly to 0.64 per site per week (H2 FY2024: 0.50) net of an improved cancellation rate of 14% (H2 FY2024: 18%).”
Chart of the Week
House price growth tends to be very seasonal. Over the course of a calendar year, the majority of any price growth will usually be recorded during the first six month while the second half tends to see relatively unchanged prices. The chart below shows the change in house prices in the year-to-date (compared to the preceding December figure). For example, the average calendar year price change between 2013 and 2019 was 4.2% but the price growth in the first six months of those years was already 3.7%, with minimal price changes in the second six months. There will inevitably be variations to this, for example we can see that last year closely tracked just below the average for the years prior to the pandemic until the last couple of months, when falling mortgage rates gave the market a boost. The trend for this year has been much weaker, with prices on track for a year-end price change of 2.1%. However, the price fall in June has reduced the projected figure to 1.3%, though there’s still a lot that could change the trajectory over the rest of the year.
