Weekly Summary: 5th August 2022

DATA: Nationwide reported UK house prices rose 11.0% in year to July

They reported house prices rose 0.1% in the month with the annual rate of change increasing from 10.7% the previous month.

DATA: Halifax reported UK house prices rose 11.8% in year to July

They reported house prices fell 0.1% in the month with the annual rate of change decreasing from 12.5% the previous month.

DATA: Zoopla reported annual UK house price rise of 8.3% in June

Their data shows the number of sales agreed in July was 17% higher than the five year average. They warn “The scale of the slowdown will depend upon how high mortgage rates rise” and “Our analysis suggests 4% is a key level for mortgage rates and one beyond which we would expect to see zero annual house price growth. Were rates to go even higher then modest price falls are a likely consequence as demand is squeezed and we see more of a buyers market”.

DATA: BoE reported another sharp rise in quoted mortgage rates in July

All quoted mortgage rates for two year fixes were well above 3% in July irrespective of loan-to-value ratio.

DATA: HMRC published quarterly SDLT statistics

The data shows the continued strong levels of activity at the top-end of the property market in England and Northern Ireland. Sales priced £1m-£2m were 97% higher in Q2 2022 than the same quarter in 2019 while sales priced over £2m were 129% higher. Sales priced under £500k were just 9% higher over the same period.

DATA: UK Finance published ranking of largest mortgage lenders in 2021

See Chart of the Week for more detail.

POLICY: Companies House launched Register of Overseas Entities

It “requires overseas entities that own land or property in the UK to declare their beneficial owners and/or managing officers”. They are recruiting volunteers for a user panel.

REPORT: BoE increased Base Rate to 1.75% and warn of recession

They expect CPI to hit just over 13% in Q4 2022 and project the UK to enter recession at the same time. The Monetary Policy Report warns “Housing market demand cooled in most parts of the UK, but continued to outstrip supply. Contacts attributed a slowdown in enquiries and online viewings in recent weeks to concerns about the rising cost of living, and noted that properties were selling at closer to asking prices than previously. There were also reports of lenders making lower mortgage offers than in recent months, reflecting the increased cost of living and higher lending rates”.

REPORT: Bank Underground blogged on “Who took out mortgage payment holidays during the pandemic”

The analysis found that while “many deferrals flowed to those whose finances had come under strain as a result of the pandemic”, there was evidence that “some applications could have been made for precautionary reasons”.

Chart of the Week

This week UK Finance published their rankings of UK mortgage lenders in 2021. The data shows the continued domination of the largest lenders in the market– the top five lenders accounted for 63% of gross lending and 66% of net lending in 2021. Equivalent data for buy-to-let lenders is expected soon.

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