DATA: Nationwide reported UK house prices rose 2.4% in year to Oct 2024
They report “a modest slowdown from the 3.2% pace recorded the previous month” as prices rose just 0.1% compared to the previous month.
DATA: Halifax reported UK house prices rose 3.9% in year to Oct 2024
They report(PDF) that while the annual rate was lower than the 4.6% recorded last month, October saw “a fourth consecutive monthly increase” with prices now higher than the previous peak in June 2022. They also state “While we expect house prices to keep growing, it will likely be at a modest pace for the rest of this year and into next”.
DATA(PDF): Zoopla reported UK house prices rose 1.0% in year to Sep 2024
They report “Sales activity running at the highest level since the 2020 boom” and the “Pipeline of sales agreed is 30% higher than a year ago, at £113bn” but the “High supply of homes for sale and affordability pressures [are] keeping house price inflation in check”.
DATA: BoE reported 65,600 mortgage approvals for purchase in Sep 2024
This figure was 49% higher than the same month last year and just 1% lower than the pre-pandemic average from 2013 to 2019.
DATA: HMRC reported 91,800 transactions in Sep 2024
The latest estimate was 9% higher than the same month last year and 7% lower than the pre-pandemic average.
DATA: HMRC published quarterly SDLT transaction data
They report “residential property receipts in Q3 2024 were 20% higher than in the previous quarter, and 5% higher than Q3 2023”. They also report First Time Buyers’ Relief claims “increased by 20% between Q2 2024 and Q3 2024 from 31,700 to 38,100” and “52,600 transactions were liable to HRAD in Q3 2024, with the 3% element generating £454 million in receipts (net of refunds)”.
DATA: BoE published quoted mortgage rate data for Oct 2024
Average quoted two-year fixed rate mortgages at 75% loan-to-value fell slightly from 4.59% in September to 4.41% in October. The revert-to-rate was unchanged at 7.69%.
DATA: BoE published effective mortgage rate data for Sep 2024
The latest release shows the average rate on new advances (both purchase and remortgage) was 4.78%, slightly lower than the 4.86% in the previous month. The average rate on outstanding balances was 3.75%, slightly higher than the 3.73% last month.
DATA: UKF published mortgage arrears and possessions for Q3 2024
They report “There were 93,630 homeowner mortgages in arrears of 2.5 per cent or more of the outstanding balance in the third quarter of 2024, 3 per cent fewer than in the previous quarter” and “There were 13,000 buy-to-let mortgages in arrears of 2.5 per cent or more of the outstanding balance in the third quarter of 2024, 4 per cent fewer than in the previous quarter”.
DATA: ONS reported on private rental affordability in England and Wales
They report “Private renters on a median household income could expect to spend 34.2% of their income on a median-priced rented home in England” and “The LAs with the least “affordable” median rents in each region in 2023 were those in urban centres such as London, Manchester, Brighton and Hove, Bristol, and Bath”.
DATA: Financial Market Expectations For BoE’s Bank Rate
The chart provides a summary for the expected future level of Bank Rate based on daily data. The One Year figure was 4.13% on 6th November compared to 3.69% on 23rd October.
DATA: New Build Energy Performance Certificates, England
This chart provides a summary of the number of EPCs on new build properties, a useful leading indicator for net additions. The 52-week rolling total was 218,147 for the week commencing 28th October, down from 219,164 the previous week.
POLICY: Chancellor delivered Autumn Budget 2024
The budget included additional funding for the Affordable Homes Programme, a consultation of the long-term social rent settlement, reduced discounts for Right to Buy, making the mortgage guarantee permanent, additional housing guarantee schemes for SMEs and the Build to Rent sector, and increasing the Higher Rates for Additional Dwellings (HRAD) Stamp Duty rate from 3% to 5%.
POLICY: MHCLG published details on the Local Nutrient Mitigation Fund
They state £47m in funding will help “unlock 28,000 nutrient neutrality stalled homes”.
POLICY: MHCLG announced £10m emergency fund for rough sleepers
POLICY: Scottish Gov published rent cap proposals
They report “rent increases would be limited to the Consumer Price Index (a measure of inflation) plus 1%, up to a maximum increase of 6%”.
POLICY: BoE’s MPC voted to reduce Bank Rate to 4.75%
The committee “voted by a majority of 8–1 to reduce Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4.75%”.
REPORT: BoE published Monetary Policy Report
They report “Housing market activity appears to be recovering from the lows observed in 2023” and “The recovery in house prices partly reflects a waning drag from past interest rate rises”.
REPORT: NAO reported on dangerous cladding
They report “remediation works on most tower blocks over 18 metres with the most dangerous form of cladding are now complete or nearing completion” but “Of the 9,000 to 12,000 buildings over 11 metres that MHCLG estimates will need remediating, 4,771 buildings have been identified and included in its portfolio, leaving up to 60% of affected buildings still to be identified” and “Of all the buildings that may be in scope, work has completed on only 12–16%”.
REPORT: OBR published Economic and fiscal outlook
They report “Average interest rates on the stock of mortgages are expected to rise from around 3.7 per cent in 2024 to a peak of 4½ per cent in 2027, then remain around that level until the end of the forecast” and “In our central forecast, we expect house price growth to fall back slightly from 1.7 per cent in 2024 to 1.1 per cent in 2025, as the average effective mortgage rate continues to rise” while “House price growth then averages around 2½ per cent from 2026 until the end of the forecast”. On housing supply, they forecast net additions of around 1.1 million over the next five years for the UK but suggest proposed planning reforms could “represent an upside risk to our housing supply forecast”.
REPORT: MHCLG published Supported Housing Review: 2023
The report, by Sheffield Hallam University “presents the results of a large-scale study of the Supported Housing Sector, which aims to understand the demographics, size and scope of the sector and the forecasts for demand and supply of accommodation”.
REPORT: MHCLG published Housing First Pilots reports
They published a cost benefit analysis and final synthesis report, and “Echoing findings regarding the effectiveness of Housing First in resolving homelessness in other international contexts, the vast majority of clients successfully retained their tenancies”.
REPORT: NEF reported on building social housing
They suggest “at least 365,000 social rent homes will need to be built over the next five years” if the government hopes to hit its housebuilding target and “this construction programme would yield net economic and social benefits of around £225bn over 30 years”. Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear to acknowledge the undercount in housebuilding data.
REPORT: IPPR reported on Housing in the North East
They report “While the North East ranks as the top region for affordability in England, safe, secure homes are out of reach for many”.
REPORT: Centre for London reported on social housing waiting times
They report “For one-bedroom properties, the average waiting time in Inner London is 1,175 days (3 years and 2 months), while in Outer London this drops to 557 days (1 year and 6 months)”.
REPORT: HBF reported on Exchequer returns from Help to Buy equity loan
They report the scheme has “so far generated a net return on investment of £718m for the Exchequer to date” and “the book may eventually be closed down with a positive return to the Exchequer of £1.63bn”.
REPORT: LSE reported on Mapping Under-Occupation in London
The research “sets out an up-to-date picture of under-occupation in London, identifying which geographic areas, tenures, household types and ethnic groups are most likely to under-occupy” and “will give a clearer picture of where efforts to target under-occupation should be focused”.
REPORT: Housing Ombudsman published Annual Complaints Review
They report “Last year, the Ombudsman made 5,465 determinations and within those cases that were not entirely outside our jurisdiction or withdrawn, made 11,835 findings on categories from property condition and anti-social behaviour to record keeping and complaint handling”. They also report “73% of decisions resulted in maladministration because the landlord did not follow its legal requirements, policy or process”.
REPORT: RTPI reported on the location of development
They report “Accessibility of destinations from approved new homes remained broadly constant” and “Newly approved housing developments were similar to the existing housing stock in their journey times to destinations”.
REPORT: Savills reported on the need for sub-market housing
They estimate “that 187,000 additional households are in need of sub-market housing each year, requiring a significant step up in delivery”.
NEWS: Housing Market Forecast Season
It’s that time of the year again with both Savills and JLL publishing their latest forecasts.
CORPORATE: Persimmon published Q3 Trading Statement
They report “The net private sales rate per outlet was up 37% in the period since 1 July at 0.70, or 0.61 excluding bulk sales, with net year to date private reservations since 1 January up 24% on last year”.
CORPORATE: Taylor Wimpey published Trading Statement
They report “In the second half to date, our net private sales rate per outlet per week was 0.70 (2023: 0.51) with a cancellation rate of 17% (2023: 21%). Excluding the impact of bulk deals, we have achieved a net private sales rate of 0.68 (2023: 0.48)”.
CORPORATE: Vistry published Trading Update
They report “Group’s YTD sales rate significantly up on prior year at 1.02 (YTD 2023: 0.72), although market conditions slower than anticipated during September and October”.
CORPORATE: Rightmove published Trading Statement
They report “Membership numbers are expected to grow by around +1% on 2023 (within our previous guidance of up to +2%), reflecting a slower-than-expected recovery in New Homes developments”.