DATA: Nationwide reported UK house prices rose 2.1% in year to Jul 2024
They report the 2.1% annual rate of change was the highest since December 2022 thanks to a seasonally adjusted monthly increase of 0.3% in July. The index shows houses prices are up 3.5% in the year to date and based on previous trends, this suggests a year-end increase of around 3.0%.
DATA: Halifax reported UK house prices rose 2.3% in year to Jul 2024
They report(PDF) a seasonally adjusted 0.8% rise in July after “three relatively flat months”. They also report “Northern Ireland continues to record the strongest property price growth of any nation or region in the UK, rising by +5.8% on an annual basis in July”.
DATA(PDF): Houseful reported house prices rose 0.1% in year to Jun 2024
They report “The housing market continues to adjust to 4%+ mortgage rates with increased market activity rather than faster price growth” and “The supply of homes for sale continues to grow and is 16% higher than a year ago”.
DATA: Bank of England published mortgage approvals data for Jun 2024
They report 60,000 seasonally adjusted mortgage approvals for house purchase, 0.3% lower than the previous month but 12% higher than the same month last year. The number of approvals for remortgage was 30% lower than last year.
DATA: HMRC reported 91,400 residential transaction in Jun 2024
They report this was 0.6% lower than the previous month but 8% higher than the same month last year.
DATA: HMRC published quarterly SDLT statistics for Q2 2024
They report residential transactions in Q2 2024 were 9% higher than Q2 2023 and First Time Buyers’ Relief claims increased by 25% over the same period.
DATA: MHCLG published new build EPCs for Q2 2024
The number of new build Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) are a useful leading indicator for net housing additions. The latest data shows there were 229,700 new build EPCs in the year to Q2 2026. As per the chart below, the annual number of EPCs for new build houses was down 15% in Q2 2024 compared to Q4 2022 while the annual number of EPCs for new build flats was down just 1% over the same period.
DATA: BoE published quoted mortgage rates for Jul 2024
The data shows the average quoted two-year fixed rate at 75% loan-to-value was 4.99% in July, down from 5.16% the previous month. The average rate for a five-year fix was 4.51%, down from 4.65% the previous month.
DATA: BoE published effective mortgage rates for Jun 2024
The release shows the average rate on new advances (both purchases and remortgages) increased slightly to 4.84%, up from 4.81% the previous month. Meanwhile, the average rate on outstanding balances increased to 3.66%, up from 3.62% the previous month.
DATA: UK Finance published Q2 2024 mortgage arrears and possessions
They report there were “96,070 homeowner mortgages in arrears of 2.5 per cent or more of the outstanding balance in the second quarter of 2024, broadly unchanged from in the previous quarter” and “13,570 buy-to-let mortgages in arrears of 2.5 per cent or more of the outstanding balance in the second quarter of 2024, 1 per cent greater than in the previous quarter”.
DATA: Ministry of Justice published Mortgage & Landlord possessions
They report mortgage possession claims, orders, warrants and repossessions all increased in Q2 2024 compared to Q2 2023. Landlord possession claims, orders, warrants, and repossessions also all increased over the period.
DATA(PDF): Rightmove reported asking rents rose 6.8% in year to Q2 2024
They report “Average advertised rents outside of London rise to a new quarterly record of £1,314 per calendar month (pcm), now 7% higher than last year” and “London rents have also risen to a new record of £2,661, now 4% higher than last year”. They also report “The number of enquiries each property is receiving from would-be tenants is now 17 which, whilst down from 26 in 2023, is more than double the 8 at this time in 2019”.
DATA: MHCLG published Statutory homelessness in England statistics
They report during Q1 2024 there was “a 6.1% increase in overall assessments compared to the same quarter last year” and “From these initial assessments, 86,520 were assessed as owed a duty to prevent or relieve homelessness”. They also report “On 31 March 2024, 117,450 households were in temporary accommodation, which is an increase of 12.3% from 31 March 2023”.
DATA: UK Finance reported on the buy-to-let mortgage market in Q1 2024
They report there were 12,422 new loans for house purchase in Q1, down 17.7% on the same quarter last year. They also report “The average gross buy-to-let rental yield for the UK in Q1 2024 was 6.88 per cent, compared with 6.23 per cent in the same quarter in the previous year”.
DATA: UK Finance published Largest Mortgage Lenders
The release provides a ranking of mortgage lenders by gross lending and outstanding balances for both the total mortgage market and buy-to-let lending.
DATA(PDF): IMLA published Intermediary Mortgage Market Tracker
The release for Q2 2024 is covered in more detail in the Chart of the Week.
DATA: ONS published comparison of empty homes statistics
They investigate the comparability of empty homes statistics in England and Wales and find: “There are definitional, methodological and practical reasons for the differences in measures of empty homes, with the main differences being long-term versus short-term vacancies, coverage and addressing, caravans and coronavirus (COVID-19) impact”.
POLICY: Bank of England MPC reduced Bank Rate to 5.00%
The “MPC voted by a majority of 5–4 to reduce Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 5%” while “Four members preferred to maintain Bank Rate at 5.25%”.
POLICY: Deputy Prime Minister launched changes to planning policy
They will “fix the foundations with an overhaul of the planning system that will see new mandatory targets for councils”, “Review of the greenbelt to identify ‘grey belt’ land and meet local housing needs, with ‘golden rules’ driving 50% delivery of affordable homes”, and the “New system will ensure every area must have local housing plans – with government ready to take the tough decisions to step in if areas fall off track”. They also launched a consultation on proposed changes to the NPPF.
POLICY: MHCLG launched New Towns Taskforce
“This government’s new towns programme will include large-scale new communities built on greenfield land and separated from other nearby settlements, but also a larger number of urban extensions and urban regeneration schemes that will work with the grain of development in any given area. The unifying principle will be that each of the new settlements will contain at least 10,000 homes, although we expect a number to be far larger in size”. The taskforce will be chaired by Sir Michael Lyons with Dame Kate Barker as deputy chair.
REPORT: BoE published Monetary Policy Report
They report “Housing investment is expected to be flat in Q2 and to rise by 1.2% in Q3, higher than expected in the May Report, reflecting the recent pickup in housing activity and house prices”. They also warn “There are large risks around the projection for housing investment, however, since volatility in the data means that it is difficult to forecast with precision”.
REPORT: Homes England published Annual Report for 2023-24
The report provides a useful table on the repayment of Help to Buy equity loans (page 79).
REPORT: Homes England published reports on Measuring Social Value
They published a report on Measuring the Wellbeing and Fiscal Impacts of Housing for Older People and a report on the Environmental Impact of New Housing Development.
REPORT: Kate Barker published initial recommendations of commission
They provide a number of recommendations and the final report is due out in the autumn.
REPORT(PDF): RICS published residential market survey for Jul 2024
They report “New buyer enquiries and agreed sales both hold steady in July”, “Respondents increasingly anticipate market activity will gain momentum in the months ahead”, and “National house price indicator remains negative but near-term expectations strengthen slightly”.
REPORT: BoE reported on the housing-consumption channel of mortgage demand
They report “Counterfactual analysis of the general-equilibrium of housing and mortgage markets shows that, sans housing-consumption channel, mortgage and house-price growth in the UK would have been 50% and 31% lower, respectively, since the 1990s”.
REPORT: NAO reported on the effectiveness of government in tackling homelessness
They report “The situation has worsened since we last examined the issue in 2017” and “the government still has no strategy or public targets for reducing statutory homelessness, and DLUHC is falling behind on key programmes to improve housing supply”. The conclude that “Until these factors are addressed across government, DLUHC will not be able to demonstrate that it is delivering optimal value for money from its efforts to tackle homelessness”.
REPORT: LGA reported on the benefits of five-year housing regimes
They report “The certainty of a regime, where local authorities are given secure ringfenced funds for housing for sequential five-year periods, will lead to hundreds of thousands more homes for social rent being built”.
REPORT: IFS reported on the determinants of local housing supply
They report “Elasticities are lower in areas with less land available for development, greater differences in elevation, higher historical population density and in areas where local planning authorities had a greater historic tendency to reject new developments”. They also report “that urban density and constraints on the amount of available land have stronger negative effects on the supply of larger properties than properties with fewer bedrooms”.
REPORT: Resolution Foundation reported on household wealth
They report a big driver in the rise of wealth has been “unearned passive gains” and “These gains have stretched the gap between the wealthy ‘haves’ and the less fortunate ‘have nots’: today, families in the top tenth of the wealth distribution have £1.3 million more in wealth per adult on average than those around the middle (fifth decile)”. They also report “despite huge increases in wealth, revenues raised from wealth-related taxes have barely moved, at around 3 per cent of GDP”.
REPORT: Resolution Foundation reported on housing distribution
They report “over the past 30 years, the number of households in England reporting living in homes with four or more bedrooms has significantly increased. Indeed, today, the majority (71 per cent) of households live in under-occupied homes with ‘spare’ bedrooms. Despite this, overcrowding has not fallen; in fact, for certain groups such as single parents, renters, and some ethnic minority groups, it has worsened, widening pre-existing inequalities”.
REPORT(PDF): Fabians reported on remaking the housing market
The report “places the concept of the ‘property-owning democracy’ in a historical context” and “sets out why we so badly need to change course”.
REPORT: LSE CASE reported on the impact of the benefit cap on housing
The research investigates the impact of the benefit cap on families’ ability to move to more affordable housing and finds “Even if families were prepared to move right across the country, away from schools and existing social networks, there were only enough suitable properties available in the country in 2022 to house one in six of our capped families”.
REPORT: Lichfields reported on the proposed planning reforms
They investigate the proposed reforms to the NPPF, new Standard Method and new towns in several blogs and maps.
REPORT: Create Streets reported on lessons from Letchworth Garden City
The report looks at the new town and the author’s experience of visiting it.
REPORT(PDF): Cambridgeshire Quality Panel’s on new developments
The report “evaluates housing schemes in Cambridge and the role of the Cambridgeshire Quality Panel in maintaining quality”.
REPORT: NHBC published housebuilding statistics for Q2 2024
These housebuilding figures significantly undercount actual delivery due to the fall in NHBC’s market share in recent decades.
REPORT: Propertymark published Housing Insight Report for Jun 2024
The report contains some interesting data but is limited by the lack of seasonal adjustment.
REPORT: PlanningPortal published Market Insight Report for Jun 2024
They report “47,298 applications submitted through the Planning Portal in June 2024. This is 12% lower than the total number of applications that were submitted in June 2023”.
CORPORATE: Unite Students published Interim Results
They report “Across the Group’s total operational portfolio, 94% of rooms are now sold for the 2024/25 academic year (2023/24: 98%)” and “Demand from international students remains robust, with 18% of the portfolio sold on direct-let tenancies to international students for 2024/25, unchanged compared to last year (2023/24: 19%)”.
CORPORATE: Rightmove published Half Year Results
They report “Membership numbers stable: up 276/1% since the start of the year at 19,061 (Dec 23: 18,785), driven by strong growth in Agency Lettings members. Agency branches were 16,193 and New Homes developments totalled 2,868 (31 December 2023: 15,839 and 2,946)”.
CORPORATE: Foxtons published Interim Results
They report “July trading in-line with expectations, with little change in customer behaviour or market dynamics since the General Election at the beginning of the month” and “At 30 June, the Sales under-offer pipeline was 21% higher than the prior year and at its highest value since the Brexit vote in 2016”.
CORPORATE: Taylor Wimpey published Half Year Results
They report “The four weeks ended 28 July 2024, mark the start of the seasonally quieter summer holiday period and our net private sales rate was 0.64 per outlet per week (2023 equivalent period: 0.47), with neither period containing bulk deals. The cancellation rate for the same period was 19% (2023 equivalent period: 24%)”.
CORPORATE: Travis Perkins published Half Year Results
They report “weak demand across the Group’s end markets and commodity price deflation leading to revenue (4.4)% lower than prior year”.
CORPORATE: CMA published Phase 1 decision on Barratt/Redrow merger
They report “merger will be referred for an in-depth, Phase 2 investigation unless the parties offer an acceptable undertaking to address these competition concerns”, specifically the concentration of land in the local area around Whitchurch.
CORPORATE: Savills published Half Year Report
They report “The average value of London and regional residential property sold by Savills in the period was lower in London at £2.0m (H1 2023: £2.3m) reflecting a greater share of the “core” market (covering properties with values up to c.£1.5m) and slightly reduced volumes traded in the higher value market. Outside London the average value traded was stable at £1.3m (H1 2023: £1.3m)”.
CORPORATE: Persimmon published Half Year Results
They report “Net private sales rate of 0.71 per outlet per week up from 0.59 in H1 2023. Excluding bulk sales, net private sales rate of 0.59, up 5% (2023: 0.56) on the prior year reflecting improvement in the Spring selling season” and “Since 1 July, our net private sales rate is 0.69 which is up 68% on last year”.
CORPORATE: Bellway published Trading Update
They report “The private reservation rate per outlet per week of 0.51 increased by 10.9% compared to the prior year (2023 – 0.46). This was delivered from a higher number of outlets, which averaged 245 in the year (2023 – 238)”.
Chart of the Week
IMLA published their latest Intermediary Mortgage Market Tracker (PDF) and it provides an interesting insight into the state of the housing and mortgage market. The latest data, for Q2 2024, shows a very large increase in the number of initial DIPs (decisions in principle) compared to recent years. This was driven by an increase in activity by first time buyers and remortgaging, especially in the South. However, as has been the case over the last few years, the conversion of these initial DIPs into completions has limited the numbers actually managing to buy or remortgage, with a conversion ratio of 36% in Q2 2024 compared to 42% the previous quarter and regularly above 50% prior to the pandemic. Despite this lower ratio, it does appear the absolute number of completions has increased significantly above recent levels and is likely to continue to support activity levels over the next couple of quarters give the time lags in completing purchases. Additionally, with mortgage rates heading lower, the autumn selling season could end up being highly competitive despite the increase in available listings.
