Weekly Summary: 9th June 2023

DATA: Nationwide reported UK house prices fell 3.4% in year to May 2023

They report a seasonally adjusted 0.1% monthly fall in house prices, with the annual rate falling to -3.4% from -2.7% last month.

DATA: Halifax reported UK house prices fell 1.0% in year to May 2023

With prices flat in May, their index reports the “First annual decline in house prices since December 2012”.

DATA(PDF): Zoopla reported house prices rose 1.9% in year to May 2023

They report house prices fell 1.3% over the last six months. They also report “Stronger growth in new sales brings more sellers into the market” but “The prospect of higher mortgage rates in H2 is likely to weaken demand and activity but the scale depends on how high rates move”.

DATA: BoE reported 48,690 mortgage approvals for house purchase in April

The seasonally adjusted figure was 5.4% lower than the previous month and 26.0% lower than last year’s figure. Approvals for remortgaging were 29.4% lower than last year.

DATA: HMRC reported 82,120 residential transactions in April 2023

This seasonally adjusted figure was 8% lower than the previous month and 25% lower than April last year. The data was 17% lower than the pre-pandemic average (2013-2019).

DATA: HMRC published quarterly stamp duty land tax statistics

See Chart of the Week for more detail on the data for Q1 2023.

DATA: BoE reported net lending turned negative in April 2023

Gross secured lending was £17billion in April, 40% lower than last year’s figure. The net change in secured lending was negative, at -£1.4 billion suggesting more mortgage debt was repaid than lent during the month.

DATA: BoE reported another rise in effective mortgage rates in April 2023

The average rate on new advances increased to 4.48% (4.44% last month) while the average rate on outstanding balances increased slightly to 2.76% (2.75% last month).

DATA: BoE reported quoted mortgage rates increased in May 2023

While lower than the peak back in December, average quoted rates increased compared to last month. The average two-year fixed-rate at 75% loan-to-value increased to 4.73% while the five-year increased to 4.29%. The average revert-to-rate was 7.44%.

DATA: DLUHC published planning applications in England for Q1 2023

The release shows a 13% annual decline in applications received and an 11% decline in decisions granted. Glenigan data also shows the number of homes granted planning permission in the year to Q1 was 269,000, down 11% on the figure for the previous year.

DATA: DLUHC published EHS housing stock by local authority modelling

The modelling of English Housing Survey data for 2019 presents experimental data on the non-decent and unsafe homes in each local authority including splits by housing tenure.

DATA: ONS published Family spending for the 2021/22 financial year

It covers “Average weekly household expenditure on goods and services in the UK, by age, income, economic status, socio-economic class, household composition and region”.

DATA: HomeLet reported average rents rose 10% in year to May 2023

The index shows rents in London were 11.3% higher than last year while rents across the rest of the UK were 9.5% higher.

REPORT(PDF): RICS published May residential market survey

They report “Forward-looking indicators again turn slightly less downbeat but clouds are gathering on the horizon”.

REPORT(PDF): UK Finance published Q1 2023 Household Finance Review

They report “For Q1 as a whole, lending to both first-time buyers (FTBs) and home movers fell to the lowest level since Spring 2020, when the housing market was largely closed during the first national Covid-19 Lockdown”. Meanwhile the increase in borrowers using longer mortgage terms appears to have peaked and they repeated some analysis from their Quarterly Trends report examining the characteristics of borrowers in arrears.

REPORT: CaCHE reported on leasehold reform proposals

The report investigates “the potential financial implications of leasehold reform from changing the extended lease length and eliminating the marriage value payment beyond the distribution of a premium reduction”.

REPORT: IPPR reported on planning for net zero and nature

The report sets out how “the planning system needs to change to deliver net zero and restore nature in England, while also delivering the services people need, including well-connected communities and housing, and supporting the development of renewable energy”.

REPORT: TwentyCi reported on the housing market in June

Unfortunately the report does not provide any particularly useful time comparisons, instead focussing on regional patterns which always show the South East as the largest market.

PRESS: MoneyFacts report withdrawal of mortgage products

On the 5th of June they reported more than 200 mortgage products had been withdrawn since the previous Friday, continuing the trend in the previous week and average fixed mortgage rates have been increasing. Both are likely to have increased since this data was published.

CORPORATE: Crest Nicholson published half year results

They report “Sales per outlet week (SPOW) of 0.54 (HY22: 0.72) with average outlets at 48 (HY22: 58)” and “Average selling prices have remained robust”.

Chart of the Week

The latest quarterly stamp duty (SDLT) statistics highlight the slowdown in transactions during the first quarter of 2023. Although changes to SDLT bands mean we must group non-liable and transactions under £500k into one group, comparing the Q1 2023 figures to the same period in previous years shows relatively similar percentage falls for all price bands versus Q1 last year except for those paying higher rates on additional dwellings (HRAD). The current market appears to be hitting investors and second home buyers hardest. Comparisons with 2019 and 2020 are more variable with higher priced transactions still above previous levels, reflecting the previous weakness of those markets.

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